The Candidates' Market Report
It appears that certain chickens are coming home to roost and that cash bettors are looking at unexpected options to gain a return. As the country begins to relieve lockdown restrictions and businesses start to reopen, President Trump's approval ratings are on the rise, hitting 49%, a high not seen since late February and the start of the Coronavirus crisis. If the president can position himself as leading the economy back to record highs by November, it could make all the difference to his campaign. Joe Biden is having a difficult campaign. Despite advocates stressing their belief in him over the Tara Reade allegations, his chances of winning are slowly slipping away. This week, CNN ran a story stating that the steadiness of Biden's polling numbers was "record-breaking" and that no candidate since 1944 had been as consistent. However, the polling also showed the race was too close to call, suggesting that Trump may also have "steady support."This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump - 49% ( + 4% )
- Congress - 25% ( + 4% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden - 1/8
- Hillary Clinton - 8/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 25/1
- Michelle Obama - 33/1
- Bernie Sanders - 40/1
- Kamala Harris - 75/1
- Kamala Harris - 7/4
- Amy Klobuchar - 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren - 9/2
- Michelle Obama - 8/1
- Gretchen Whitmer - 9/1
- Stacey Abrams - 10/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation's Tim Donner puts it:"Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin - he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in '16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling - both swing states Trump lost in '16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now."
- Florida: Democrats - 5/6; Republicans - 5/6
- Arizona: Democrats - 4/6; Republicans - Even
- Michigan: Democrats - 4/9; Republicans - 6/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats - 8/11; Republicans - 10/11
Primary Races
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17. Head over to Liberty Nation's Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump - 10/11
- Joe Biden - 6/5
- Hillary Clinton - 20/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 35/1
- Jesse Ventura - 35/1
- Justin Amash - 50/1
- Mike Pence - 50/1
- Michelle Obama - 50/1
- Bernie Sanders - 80/1
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
- 251 - 269 = 4/1
- 270 - 275 = 11/2
- 276 - 280 = 5/1
- 281 - 290 = 13/2
- 291 - 300 = 6/1
- 301 - 315 = 6/1
- 316 - 330 = 7/1
- 331 - 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
~ Read more from Mark Angelides. For home study students and young people, Liberty Nation recommends...
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