The long-awaited Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran to cease hostilities is on the table for signature - but will it actually be signed? According to President Donald Trump, it will happen today, Sunday, June 14. Just this morning, however, the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars reported that Tehran has not yet made a final decision. Still, what makes his words ring more likely than in times past is that Iran’s foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, has stopped denying the agreement and is now saying that the two governments are indeed close to a deal.
On June 11, talking to reporters, President Trump explained that he called off scheduled military strikes against Iran because of significant progress in negotiations. That progress has resulted in the real possibility of an MOU signing. From unofficial reporting, the key elements of the MOU are a 60-day ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz opened for transit, and Iran giving up its nuclear weapons ambitions. That may sound like everything President Trump has wanted and been denied this whole time - but according to Iranian officials, we're closer than ever.
MOU With Iran Closer Than Ever
In an X post on June 13, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted on X, “We are closer to a peace deal than ever before. With finalization likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical-level talks next week…We are confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace.” President Donald Trump echoed Sharif’s comments in a June 13 Truth Social message and said the deal will be signed on Sunday. He also explained how different it was from the Obama-era agreement. Trump wrote:
“My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow [Sunday, June 14], and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL. Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had.”
This time, negotiations came off dead center when, following Iran’s downing of an American AH-64 Apache attack helicopter, President Trump authorized renewed air attacks. According to US Central Command, “CENTCOM forces launched strikes on Iranian military surveillance capabilities, communication systems, and air defense sites across Iran.” Trump demonstrated his intentions to continue the air assaults until Iran came back to the negotiating table, ready to be productive. It was clear that an “attack and talk” was going to be the approach he would take. However, President Trump explained what prompted him to call off continued air strikes.
First, unlike previous discussions, the recent talks with agreed-upon positions were approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership. President Trump posted on Truth Social: “Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have…canceled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.” Second, there was broader approval of the final MOU conditions by regional allies that have been impacted by the conflict. Those involved are the “United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others,” Trump said. The president did clarify that the US Navy blockade of shipping to and from Iranian ports would stay in place “until this Transaction is finalized.”
President Trump Places Caveat on MOU Signing
President Trump ended his June 13 Truth Social announcement of the imminent MOU signing with one caveat: “Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again!” As Iran should know by now, the US president does not make idle threats and is willing to back up his words with actions. It was clear that, as negotiations entered their final stages, Iran was helpless to fight back. US Central Command reported on June 12 that “Iran launched multiple one-way attack drones in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. US forces have downed all of them in recent hours as traffic flow through the strait continues unimpeded. The international trade corridor remains open for transit.”
The signing of a Memorandum of Understanding, it should be remembered, does not have the weight of a Memorandum of Agreement, which is considered binding on the signatories. An MOU establishes a framework that expresses intent and from which the parties will come to a final agreement. Nonetheless, the MOU is a major step towards eliminating Iran as a nuclear threat, stopping the nation’s support of proxy terrorism, and ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is open for free transit for global commerce. If the MOU holds, much of the domestic sniping at President Trump from the left will be shut down, energy costs should drop, and there is potential for lowering tensions in the Middle East. The stability of the ceasefire following the MOU signing will be the test.
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