More Is in Play With the MOU Than Iran Breaking the Ceasefire

It didn’t take long for Iran to violate the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) imposed ceasefire. The MOU was signed by Iran and the US on June 17, and eight days later, Iran, in an unprovoked drone strike, hit the Singapore-flagged commercial cargo vessel, M/V Ever Lovely, exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast.  Iran used the excuse that it was enforcing what it believes to be Iranian regulations controlling the waterway. Again, on Saturday, June 27, Iran attacked the Panamanian-Flagged tanker the M/T Kiku in the Strait. On Sunday, June 28, Iran launched air strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain against US military facilities. A US response was not long in coming.

US Central Command reported, “US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites after Iran hit M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 with a one-way attack drone. The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of Iran’s attack.”

Iran Fails to Get Message

With this second attack on commercial shipping in the Strait, it’s apparent that Iran has not gotten the message. The consequence for Iran was, according to US Central Command, “US Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted strikes tonight [June 27] on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's drone attack on M/T Kiku.”

CBS News confirmed, “Bahrain said Iranian drones struck the Gulf state Saturday, which the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed targeted a ‘US terrorist army,’ after U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iran and an earlier attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran's attack on Gulf States takes the violations of the ceasefire to new levels. The attacks on the cargo and oil tanker vessels in the Strait are unambiguous violations of Paragraph Five of the MOU, which states, “Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.”

An analysis from the Institute for the Study of War reported that “Iran’s strikes against Bahrain may also be part of an ongoing Iranian effort to coerce the Gulf states to accept Iran’s control of the strait and deter them from supporting US efforts to undermine Iran’s control.” Additionally, the Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry put out a warning to Gulf States not to allow the US to use their bases to attack Iran.

Paragraph Five goes on to say that defining “future administration and maritime services” would be done with the leadership of Oman and the other Persian Gulf states in accordance with international law. These conditions apparently meant nothing to Iran. There is no evidence that Iran has consulted with any of the other Gulf States. This calls into question the validity of Iran’s agreement to the other 13 paragraphs. Though the MOU is ambiguous on whether any country is legally allowed to charge tolls or fees or to regulate the Strait in any fashion, during the 60-day negotiating period for the MOU, transiting the Strait is to be free of such administrative regulations, fees, or tolls. Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to free and unfettered transit is a critical condition of the MOU, to be sure, but there are equally, if not more important, conditions of the agreement with which Iran must be expected to comply.

Trump Believes Nuclear Commitment Is Key

For example, Paragraph Eight states, “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” which is by all accounts the linchpin of the US being involved in the conflict with Iran in the first place. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, period. President Trump certainly believes Iran’s commitment to be valid. He posted on Truth Social, “Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!). This will insure ‘Nuclear Honesty.’ If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations!” So, what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz is significant and irritating, but the MOU and the 60 days of negotiations that follow from it have ramifications beyond keeping the Strait open. 

The US could put the MOU on hold, reinstate the full weight of sanctions, and reapply the blockade on Iranian shipping. These actions, combined with applying a new air attack campaign that addresses all of the targets left untouched, particularly remaining Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) training camps, command and control facilities, and headquarters not hit from the first go-around, may get the IRGC’s attention. It becomes problematic when the US is attempting to negotiate a peaceful end to the hostilities, and Iran seems to have no such intention. In the meantime, the US will continue to provide protection to cargo ships and tankers moving through the Hormuz Strait, and, if the ships are attacked, the US will respond with increasingly more destructive air attacks.

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