Is the GOP Red Wave Really Ebbing?

Autumn approaches, and, as predictable as the falling leaves, the major media are doing their best to throw cold water on Republican optimism. Sure enough, as we enter the home stretch of the midterm congressional campaign, you have likely started to hear the hopeful narrative building among elite liberals and journalists with a vested interest in the outcome. Not so fast with the talk of a red wave, they say.

They are trying to somehow take credit for gas now averaging “only” four bucks a gallon instead of five like it was a few weeks ago, and inflation now running “only” at 8.5% -- still the highest in 40 years, but lower than the previous month. Biden even claimed “zero” inflation in July, because the number went down. This clever lie assumes voters will forget all that came before. It’s as if you have dug a huge hole, but you stop digging and claim progress -- even though the hole you already dug is still right there.

Then they claim -- though not without skeptics in the Democratic Party -- that Biden has energized young voters by unilaterally canceling hundreds of billions in student debt. And they go on to declare that they have similarly invigorated the far left with new laws further expanding federal power in its many forms -- dishonestly marketed as “inflation reduction.” And don’t forget all those legal troubles piling up for Donald Trump.

The Red Wave And Abortion

But then there is the single issue they say will animate Democrats beyond all the others: abortion. Women writ large, they claim, are so outraged it is no longer a constitutional right that they are ready to rush the voting booth to the great benefit of the pro-abortion party. They cherry-pick a couple of results in recent and relatively obscure elections in New York State -- after which Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) declared, “Republicans should be very, very, very scared this morning about their prospects” -- as proof positive that things are heading their way.  Put it all together, and the word is out: Biden is back -- and so is his Democratic Party! The red wave is receding. The riptide has turned into an ebb tide. Dems may win the House after all.

Hold on just a moment there, Skippy. Sure, anything is possible in politics. Heck, Trump was elected president. Entire storylines can reverse in a matter of days, if not hours. But there is perhaps no better indicator of how out of touch leftists and major media are with the American people than this principal reason they provide for suggesting Democrats can defy long-standing historical trends, a very unpopular president, and their position on the wrong side of a fierce culture war.

Blinded by their own ideology, they posit that women are motivated more by having universal access to abortion than by their ability to afford gas and groceries, the shrinking value of every dollar they spend, and an impending recession into which we have likely already fallen. In fact, that is simply not true. According to recent studies by both the Institute of Politics at Harvard and Economist/YouGov on the biggest issues facing the country today, “cost of living” came in first, abortion fifth. When asked in the Harvard poll to compare the relative importance of abortion and inflation, respondents chose inflation by 66% to 27%.

It used to be the Democratic Party's position that abortion should be “safe, legal, and rare.” But now, terminating a pregnancy has become a badge of honor among activist women, who are conflated by the left to represent all women. But with more than half the country still open for business on abortions, the issue will hardly prove an exception to James Carville’s famous assertion regarding elections: “It’s the economy, stupid.” That line was hilariously turned on its head in mockery when then-fledgling President Bill Clinton got drawn into addressing what became the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. His detractors responded with “it’s gays in the military, stupid.” Point made. Stick with what matters most to the voters. If you can’t afford to do so, change the subject, but at your own peril.

Democrats certainly realize that their days of wine and roses are fast reaching an end. They will no longer be able to behave as if they were handed a ringing mandate to force-feed the country their most radical ideas -- after losing seats in Congress in 2020 and holding the slimmest of majorities in both chambers. In the end, they will be unlikely to escape the time-tested reality that the party in power rarely survives troubles that hit directly at people’s pocketbooks. Money still talks, or the voters walk -- to the other side.