Gallup Releases Startling Poll on 2024 Election

We have reached the heart of election season, which means we are being bombarded with presidential preference polls day after day. Partisans on both sides of the aisle will reflexively claim the latest survey is either significant if their candidate is ahead or meaningless if the candidate is behind, or they'll call it an “outlier” if the result is particularly egregious for their side. At this juncture, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls has Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by two points nationally after finishing ahead in seven of the last ten national polls.

Good reason for Trump supporters to panic six weeks before Election Day, yes? Not exactly. Polling in the seven crucial battleground states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada) reflects a dead heat, basically good news for Donald Trump. But the most heartening news for Trump and the Republicans running for Congress comes from the nation’s most prestigious polling firm. And it’s based not on Trump vs Harris but on which party has the advantage on the issue(s) voters deem most important. There have been many such issue surveys throughout the campaign, but none as comprehensive or conclusive as the one provided by Gallup.

Founded in 1935, Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for presidential elections, and its track record is as close to impeccable as anyone in the business. After the 2016 election, it pivoted away from presidential preference polls, focusing instead on intensive examination of the issues of greatest concern to voters and how they relate to election outcomes. In summarizing its conclusions, obtained from a mix of polling and analysis, using statistics from other sources and a number of indexes created for specific topics, Gallup’s conclusion based on polling from early September is significant, if not startling:

“Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party.”

Indeed, Gallup predicts that Republicans will succeed in 2024 because of “the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.”

Is Gallup the Definitive Poll?

Let’s examine the data Gallup is relying on to reach its conclusion. On the measures with the strongest correlation to past outcomes – party identification and “the party better able to handle the most important problem” – Gallup concludes that both favor Republicans. On four other measures with a moderate correlation to past outcomes – overall satisfaction, economic confidence, the party better able to keep America prosperous, and presidential job approval – Republicans are also favored. And on third-tier issues with a weaker correlation to past outcomes – the party able to keep America safe from international threats and preference for government activity – the GOP also comes out ahead. On party favorability and congressional job approval, Gallup does not award an advantage to either party.

Add it all up, and the really bad news for the Democrats is that they are not favored on a single measure. This would suggest that the Democratic Party better pray – or, more likely, hope – that abortion and Trump derangement can become predominant issues, enough to wipe out advantages Republicans enjoy on every measure that has proven crucial to previous elections.

Among the many takeaways from this report, arguably the most surprising – and, perhaps, most revealing – is on the issue most predictive of outcomes: party ID. Self-identifying Republicans actually outnumber Democrats during this third quarter of an election year for the first time since Gallup began such tracking in 1992. For those who question or dismiss history, the chart below speaks to the viability of Gallup’s methods. It shows that in every election since 1952, the party viewed more favorably on the most important issue(s) has won the presidency.

Consistent with its research over multiple decades, Gallup concludes: “The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose.” Does Kamala Harris possess the political skill to overcome glaring deficits on the issues weighing most heavily on the hearts and minds of voters? Down-ballot Democrats relying on the top of the ticket better hope so.

Has the electorate changed enough, as Democrats claim, to render such clear historical trends no longer relevant? Will the media’s nakedly partisan protection of Harris and attacks on Trump, or his own bombast and mean tweets, turn off enough voters to hand the election to Harris by default? In the end, will voters believe the vice president can effectively break from her administration’s broadly unpopular policies? Can she convince voters that their lives will be better under her? Well, based on the conclusions drawn by Gallup’s exhaustive examination of the American electorate, Kamala Harris might have to pull a rabbit out of her hat.