Left-leaning media outlets have sunk their teeth into a new narrative, suggesting that the Democratic Party has a real midterm shot at taking back the Senate in November. Much of the chatter came after the Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races toward Democrats. Until recently, the chances of the Democratic Party regaining control of the Senate seemed far-fetched to both parties. Maybe it still does, but some are taking the possibility seriously. “There are warning signs in some races,” said Republican strategist Evan Siegfried, speaking to MS NOW. But are those warning signs a real threat?
Midterm Mayhem – Core Battlegrounds
North Carolina might be the most likely state the Democrats could flip this midterm season. Last week, the Cook Political Report changed NC from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat.” Former governor Roy Cooper is running against Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, who has never held office. Recent polls show Cooper ahead by three to 14 points. National Republicans plan to give Whatley a major boost, though, with the Senate Leadership Fund pledging $71 million to the race. He may need it, too. Cooper entered the second quarter with $18.5 million on hand, while Whatley reported having around $2.5 million.
Over in Ohio, a state President Donald Trump carried all three times, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces Republican John Husted, his first election since he was appointed to Vice President JD Vance’s former Senate seat last year. Brown served in Congress for more than 30 years before losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024. April polls show Husted with a narrow advantage, so this will be one to watch. Even though Republicans ran the table in Ohio for years, they’re still taking this one seriously. The Senate GOP’s super PAC set aside $79 million this month for Ohio. The fact that a state Trump won three times is even on the map this year speaks volumes.
As for North Carolina, registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats for the first time in the state’s history. But will they all show up?
Credible Threats
Maine will likely be one of the most vital general elections in the country this cycle, a must-win for Democrats in their long-shot quest to regain control of the Senate. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is defending a seat she has held since 1997. She’ll either face political newcomer Graham Platner, an oyster farmer running as a progressive, or two-term Gov. Janet Mills, a moderate with the backing of Senate leaders.
Platner’s inflammatory online history doesn’t appear to be impacting his campaign too much, though Mills hopes it will, telling The New York Times that Republicans “will tear him apart if he’s the nominee.” She might be right. Regardless, Platner has built a large following and leads Mills by a two-to-one margin in recent Democratic primary polls. This could be good news for the GOP. Even so, the latest general election surveys place either Platner or Mills ahead of Collins by single digits, with nearly two months before the primary. However, Collins remains a dominant force in Vacationland, and it may be difficult to convince enough Mainers to switch sides.
Alaska is also one of the Democrats’ top targets. Former Rep. Mary Peltola looks to unseat GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. She appears to be a strong candidate and has adopted anti-corruption views similar to many of her Democratic colleagues in other races nationwide. Several of her social media posts are about “crooked politicians feathering their own nests” and the elite “rigging the system” against everyday people. Peltola hovers a few points above Sullivan in the latest polls, but Kalshi, a betting market, has the Democratic nominee ahead by 20%. Maybe she has a chance, but the anti-establishment rhetoric, though it plays well with the base, often isn’t enough to swing independent voters to the left.
The Outer Edge
It almost seems absurd to talk about a Democrat potentially winning a US Senate seat in Texas. The Lone Star State hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s. Yet state Rep. James Talarico, who beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary, maintains a narrow lead in general election polls. Of course, it all depends on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton wins the GOP runoff. Many Republicans view Cornyn as too moderate and Paxton as a liability: He was impeached (then acquitted) of bribery and other charges in 2023. Yet most polls show Paxton performing about the same as Cornyn against Talarico.
Trump won the state by 14 points in 2024, but his victory was built on enormous gains among nonwhite voters, who appear to be leaning left in recent polls. Talarico will need every advantage he can get to flip the seat. But, when it’s all said and done, he may only be making a name for himself and forcing the GOP to do a little extra legwork. Beto O’Rourke also gained national attention during his Senate and gubernatorial campaigns in the Lone Star State – and he lost both.
Then there’s Iowa, a seat that opened after Sen. Joni Ernst announced in September that she would not run for re-election. Democrats haven't secured a Senate seat in Iowa since Rep. Tom Harkin’s election in 2008. The likely Republican nominee is Rep. Ashley Hinson, a strong candidate the president endorsed last year. She’ll face either state Sen. Zach Wahls or state Rep. Josh Turek.
Trump won all three of his presidential races in the state. While it’s possible that many of Iowa’s relatively moderate, white working-class voters who supported him in 2024 could favor a Democrat for this election, the chances are slim.
The Math
Republicans still hold the advantage on paper, with a 53-47 majority, a favorable map, and a massive fundraising edge. To flip control, Democrats would likely need to sweep every competitive Republican-held seat while defending their own vulnerable turf – a tall order in any political environment.
A Democratic takeover seems unlikely, but the GOP’s margin for error is shrinking. It is being forced to defend more ground than expected and in more places than it would like. For now, Republicans still have the upper hand, but when a map expands, it becomes harder to control – and easier to lose piece by piece.
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