A recently declassified 2020 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) shows an unmistakable growth pattern of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) from Bush ’43 to Obama to Trump and now the Biden administration. The director of national intelligence released a de-classified version of the May 2020 report with a compelling narrative describing the potential for ISIS to be a terrorist problem. The new open-source document should be a wake-up call for the current White House occupant. President Joe Biden and his national security team have been criticized for policies making US citizens more vulnerable to terrorism.
“ISIS has regrouped since its territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria and is organizing for a prolonged insurgency while rebuilding many key capabilities likely to expand its global reach and the threat it poses to US and Western interests through 2021,” according to the de-classified NIE. Analysis in the report indicates the speed with which the would-be ISIS caliphate was established and spread should be of concern.
Intelligence Report Describes Rise of ISIS During Obama Years
During the Obama administration, “The group’s strength across most categories peaked in 2014-15 when it acquired many state-like capabilities,” the newly declassified document states. ISIS was generally weakened, and least capable of mounting terrorist operations, during former President Trump’s administration when destroying ISIS was the focus of US counterterrorism. In 2018 and early 2019, though still a formidable terrorist force compared to Al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), ISIS was effectively eliminated as an existential threat to the US.
Joe Biden (Photo by Pete Marovich-Pool/Getty Images)
The latest analysis shows that the Biden administration’s counterterrorism policies may be creating the opportunity for ISIS to re-emerge. Although ISIS’ aspirations to achieve a worldwide presence with networks outside Iraq and Syria with a global enterprise have been strong and consistent, other areas show a projected growing operational capability that began when the Biden administration came into office. For example, command and control, insurgency in Iraq and Syria, external operations, and the ISIS threat inside the United States were predicted to increase in operational capability throughout 2021. Nonetheless, “Inspired attacks very likely will remain the primary ISIS threat to the US homeland,” the estimate predicts.
The Associated Press reports, “Analysts said many of the judgments in the 2020 report appear prescient today, particularly as the group is resurgent in Afghanistan following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of American forces last year.” Despite the latest assessment, the resurgence of ISIS should not have come as a surprise to the White House. Though almost two years old, the key messages in the previously classified NIE foreshadowed the publicly available intelligence reports on the rebirth of ISIS.
Latest NIE Consistent With Previous Estimate
In a March 2022 article, Liberty Nation reported on the unclassified NIE released in February, and it is consistent with previous assessments as well as the recent NIE document. Additionally, as is now apparent, the declassified 2020 documents forewarned US national security agencies that ISIS should be a concern. The February intelligence estimate explained:
“ISIS leaders remain committed to their vision of building a self-styled global caliphate headquartered in Iraq and Syria … The threat from ISIS against US persons and interests probably will remain greatest in regions where the group has an operational presence; ISIS’s ideology and propaganda, however, almost certainly will continue to inspire attacks in the West, including in the United States.”
The drone missile strike in Kabul, Afghanistan, killing Al-Qa’ida senior leader Ayman Al Zawahiri at the end of July, confirmed Afghanistan is a haven for terrorist organizations. ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K), an Afghanistan variant, was identified as the terrorist group setting off the suicide bomb that killed 13 American service members and over 170 Afghan nationals during the chaotic US retreat from Kabul just over a year ago. Whether ISIS-K can project terror outside of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan remains to be seen, but the motivation is present. To date, it seems the Biden administration has not heeded the repeated warnings.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
