The figures are in for the first three months of 2025, and by all accounts, crime in the United States is down. Could this be - at least in part - the result of mass deportations?
Crime Decreases Nationwide
A report by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) – an organization of police executives representing large cities in the US and Canada – compared the number of incidents from January to March this year to the same period in 2024. Independent journalist Sara Carter said the data revealed “a dramatic drop in homicides across Denver and Aurora, Colorado, following Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) efforts to dismantle the Tren de Aragua gang.” Furthermore, she added, “This marked decrease in violence comes after intensified immigration enforcement under the Trump administration, which had made the Denver metropolitan area a key focus for removals of criminal immigrants.”
An overview of the MCCA report highlighted violent crime statistics in the United States. In the first three months of the year:
Homicides were down from 1,535 in 2024 to 1,221 in 2025.
Rapes were down from 6,568 in 2024 to 5,642 in 2025.
Robberies were down from 22,814 in 2024 to 18,259 in 2025.
Aggravated assaults were down from 60,940 in 2024 to 53,259 in 2025.
In all instances, the preliminary findings revealed that major crime was down across the nation. Which cities had the most dramatic declines?
According to the MCCA report, Albuquerque, NM, had 11 homicides this quarter compared to 21 during the same time last year. That's a decrease of more than 47%. Rapes were down almost 24%, robbery dropped 34%, and aggravated assaults declined by about 18%. In Dallas, TX, murder and rape were down 44% and 34%, respectively, while robbery and aggravated assaults both dropped about 11%.
Los Angeles, a hotspot for illegal immigration, also experienced a major drop in crime. The first three months of 2025 saw 38% less murder, almost 20% fewer rapes, and about 15% fewer robberies. Aggravated assault in LA dropped nearly 23%.
Baltimore, MD, reports 45 homicides so far this year, which is a third of those reported in 2024. In 2021, the city recorded 344. Katherine Hoops, a pediatric doctor and researcher at Johns Hopkins Hospital, told The Economist that the facility “hasn’t admitted a child injured by a gun for months. A few years ago it treated at least one a month.” Jeff Asher, an analyst who compiles a real-time crime index from agency-level records, told the outlet that this year “is on track to be the least murderous nationwide since the 1960s.”
What Is Causing the Decline?
Overall, according to MCCA, violent crime has dropped by 6%, and homicides fell by 17% in 69 cities. Columbus, OH, saw the largest decline with 41%, according to data analysis by Axios. The Economist cited several reasons for this, including the end of the COVID pandemic and more cities getting behind law enforcement after the Defund the Police movement failed. Others argue that mass deportations have contributed significantly to the drop in crime. The reasons may be in dispute, but the effects are not. Crime is down in America - and that's a win, whatever the cause.
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