Congress After Callais – How Many Seats Might the GOP Pick Up?

When the Supreme Court ruled against racially gerrymandered congressional districts in Louisiana v. Callais, it set off a redistricting firestorm that could significantly change the layout of Congress. And Louisiana’s Republican governor, Jeff Landry, is happily leading the charge. On Thursday, April 30 – just one day after the 6-3 ruling – Governor Landry signed an executive order suspending the US House primary in Louisiana, originally scheduled for May, to give the state legislature time to draw up a new map. The Pelican State could gain another GOP seat or two, but that might only be the beginning. There are almost 150 such districts across the nation – and around a third of them are in states with Republican trifectas.

Louisiana’s Race Against the Clock

Liberty Nation News’ Graham J Noble called it “the most consequential Supreme Court decision in recent history,” and for good reason. “On April 29, the nation’s highest court issued a ruling that may well profoundly impact the congressional district maps in several states,” Noble wrote. “The case was Louisiana v. Callais, in which a group of ‘non-African American’ Louisiana voters challenged the redistricting of the state after the 2020 Census. In a 6-3 decision, the Court ruled that the state used race ‘in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.’”

Before the SB8 map, Louisiana had a single majority-black congressional district; the new map (now ruled unconstitutional) created a second. So, what does this mean for the Pelican State? Well, if nothing else, a single district held by the Democratic Party is going to be redrawn in a way that likely hands it to Republicans at the next election – though it’s certainly possible both districts could change hands. In short, the GOP will likely gain one or two new seats in Congress.

Given how late it is in the midterm election season (well into the primaries, nationally), at first glance this seemed to be an issue more for 2028 than 2026 – but then Governor Landry suspended the House primary and called on state lawmakers to get the map done. Still, the clock is ticking. If a new map isn’t passed in time, Republicans will have to wait for 2028 to snag those seats.

One Small Step for the Louisiana GOP, One Giant Leap for Republicans in Congress?

One or two seats here and there may not sound like much, but they do add up. More importantly, this ruling seems likely to affect the entire nation, not just Louisiana. On Thursday, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) said other states should consider redrawing their maps quickly, in time for this year’s elections. “We want constitutional maps,” Speaker Johnson told the press Thursday. “All states that have unconstitutional maps should look at that very carefully, and I think they should do it before the midterms.”

Of course, each state has its own electoral law, and redrawing districts in time for the November elections may not be possible everywhere. As well, not every majority-minority district is going to be racially gerrymandered, necessarily; some districts are more heavily populated with people who aren’t white.

But in total, there were 148 such districts across 28 states as of the 2024 election. Democrats represent 122 of those compared to just 26 for Republicans. Most of those states, of course, are controlled by Democrats or have split governments. There are, however, 52 majority-minority districts – most of which are represented by Democrats – in GOP-trifecta states.

Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, South Carolina, and Tennessee have one each. Alabama and Louisiana have two. Georgia has five. Florida and Texas have an impressive 13 and 24, respectively.

One or two seats in a single state may not seem significant – but 52 across 11 states is massive. If even just a quarter of these get redrawn in a way that flips the seats red – even if it doesn’t take effect until the 2028 election season in some states – it would mean a massive shift in the balance of power. Right now, the GOP holds a razor-thin majority in the House. Anything but complete party unity means a failure to pass legislation. Even if the House turns blue after the midterms – possible, though increasingly unlikely, it seems – 2028 could see a red wave sweep Congress.