China Mediating Peace Between Russia and Ukraine?

Is it possible that China could mediate an end to the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine? Emboldened by its diplomatic success in mending relations between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Beijing is dispatching a peace envoy to war-torn Ukraine. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky just had their first telephone conversation since the unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine, during which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader offered a Chinese consigliere to burnish Xi's global peacemaker campaign.

China Wants to Spread the Peace

But make no mistake. A readout of the phone conversation posted on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China's (PRC) webpage reveals the tone is identical to the PRC's peace plan proposed in late March. As Liberty Nation reported on the self-aggrandizing Beijing 12-point proposal, titled “China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, is more about self-promotion than peace. Moreover, the close relationship between Russia and China makes any notion that the plan would provide an adequate measure of justice to Ukraine is quite fanciful." Xi is pressing for Russian President Vladimir Putin's narrative. The PRC's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported on the Zelensky-Xi phone call:

"Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable way forward. There is no winner in nuclear wars. On the nuclear issue, all relevant parties must stay calm and exercise restraint, truly act in the interests of their own future and that of humanity, and jointly manage the crisis. With rational thinking and voices now on the rise, it is important to seize the opportunity and build up favorable conditions for the political settlement of the crisis."

As the two presidents continued their conversation, the CCP foreign affairs ministry described Xi telling Zelensky he was sending a "Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs to Ukraine and other countries to have in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis." The tone of the MFA communique was clear: We're issuing you a negotiator who will solve this crisis. More telling about Xi's side of the teleconference is that China and Russia are the only nations raising the specter of nuclear war. All other parties involved in the Ukraine crisis caution against even considering a nuclear course of action. "Xi Jinping, one of his main goals is to make China into a superpower. And so, part of that is being involved in security discussions and peace talks around the world," The Wall Street Journal's Austin Ramzy explained in a WSJ Video. China is capturing the headlines as trying to achieve a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, posturing as the only government taking the initiative to bring the crisis to an end -- a status the United States once held.

The Russian Invasion Complicated the Relationship Between Ukraine and China

Before the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine, Beijing was Kyiv's largest trading partner. The current crisis has all but stopped that relationship. "In 2021, Ukraine announced plans for Chinese companies to build trade-related infrastructure," Joe McDonald wrote for the Associated Press. When the PRC would not intercede to stop Russia from attacking Ukraine, the Kyiv government became estranged from China. But Beijing puts Beijing's needs first, and just days before the Zelensky-Xi phone conversation, Xi celebrated the new friendship between China and Russia. Xi reiterated what China had published in its 12-part peace plan that the former Soviet Union members were now sovereign countries, and that sovereignty should be preserved. That declaration cannot please Putin. Moscow's excuse for invading was that Ukraine did not merit the status of a sovereign nation.

However, after the conversation with Xi, Zelensky is in position to give some consideration to Xi's counsel. For one reason, if there is any chance of Ukraine coming out of the current conflict and regaining territory lost in the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea by Kremlin forces, the Ukrainian leader cannot dismiss the opportunity to stop the current carnage. "I had a long and meaningful phone call with President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine's ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations," Zelensky tweeted following the call. Sovereign nations exchange ambassadors. And just the optics of his one-on-one discussion with Xi could leave the impression that Zelensky will take help from anyone, which might motivate the United States and the rest of NATO to accelerate ammunition deliveries and possibly provide more advanced capabilities like F-16 fighter jets.

Zelensky has made clear a negotiated settlement cannot have a ceasefire that is simply a ruse to give Russia time to reconstitute its forces, as has happened in the past. The PRC may want to project an image of world-class peacemaker and key influencer in global events, but the Ukrainian leader has not budged from his position that his country demands the return of all Russian-occupied territory. We'll see what China can do with Zelensky's objective.