"Hope springs eternal," the saying goes, but not when dealing with terrorists. So it is with the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Within a few days of the agreed-to 60-day pause in fighting, rocket fire erupted from Lebanon, and Israel responded with an airstrike on Hezbollah ammunition and missile storage sites. Reporting from the region points out that these breaches were to be expected.
Israel has shouldered the lion's share of the combat against Iran's proxies like Hezbollah. The hostilities have been non-stop in Gaza and southern Lebanon since the murderous attack on the kibbutzim in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Consequently, when the United States and France brokered a deal with Lebanon for a cessation of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, it was welcomed.
But when two combatants have been in conflict for more than 40 years, the end of hostilities will not be tidy. "So, we are seeing some sporadic strikes in the last few days. This was expected … We went from hundreds of rocket attacks to basically zero by Hezbollah and dozens of air strikes by Israel to one or two per day. So, there's been a dramatic reduction in the violence," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Dec. 2.
As Kirby explained the expectations for the ceasefire, “[a]t least nine people were killed and three injured on Monday from Israeli strikes on two southern Lebanese towns, Talousa and Haris, as the Israeli military said it struck dozens of Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon," Off the Press reported. The Lebanon-based terrorist group said its two missile launches into Israel were a "defensive warning strike," and Israel attacked in response.
The continuing skirmishes are not helpful to the Israel Defense Force (IDF) since the constant hostilities defeat the intention of the ceasefire. In a video address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there were three reasons for entering a truce at this point:
"First, focusing on the Iranian threat. Second, to allow our forces to refresh and also to allow our resources to be replenished. It is no secret that there has [sic] been some delays in ammunition and arms, and this delay is going to be removed. We are going to have advanced weapons that will save the lives of our soldiers and will give us great force to complete our missions. A third reason for the ceasefire is to disconnect the two arenas and isolate Hamas."
Netanyahu went on to say that without Hezbollah, Hamas would be "on its own – alone on the battlefield." Mopping up the pockets of Iran-backed Hamas terrorists in Gaza is a challenge. Though no longer an organized military force, Hamas continues to fight, in many cases in the form of roving armed gangs hijacking UN aid intended for the Palestinian refugees.
Lebanon Has Little Control Over Hezbollah
During an interview on Fox News, David Friedman, former US ambassador to Israel, re-emphasized an essential aspect of the ceasefire. "Look, this is an agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Israel is not at war with Lebanon. Israel is at war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah hasn't even signed this agreement. It presumes that Lebanon will be able to control Hezbollah, Lebanon hasn't been able to do for 20 years," Freidman claimed. This raises an important issue about the Biden administration's optimism about the ceasefire.
Following the signing of the Israel-Lebanon fighting pause agreement, a White House senior administration official told reporters the Lebanese Army would be engaged and "patrolling the area and ensuring that if there's any remaining infrastructure or remaining weaponry, that it is removed and that no such infrastructure can be rebuilt, again, in that area." However, as Friedman pointed out, there is little cause for optimism regarding the Lebanese Army's ability to fulfill its mission. After all, Hezbollah has co-opted the Lebanese military for decades.
Whether the ceasefire holds solidly, partially, or not at all, Israel will take this opportunity to refresh the IDF troops and reconstitute its combat resources. Additionally, the 60-day time frame for the halt in fighting will give President-elect Donald Trump and his national security team time to establish their presence in bringing hostilities to a permanent end. Trump has shown an ability to successfully manage conflict to his preferred conclusion.
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