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Last night, September 30, California held its only gubernatorial debate before ballots start being mailed. If interested observers were hoping for a clash of political titans, however, they were surely disappointed. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton almost certainly failed to move the needle. And with that failure, viewers were likely reminded of a saying often attributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
A Debate or a Diatribe?
Becerra, the former secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden, had one message for potential voters, and it could be summed up as: Donald Trump is bad, and my opponent is basically his puppet. Almost every significant response mentioned Trump’s name, to the point where Hilton railed, “All you ever say is ‘Trump, Trump, Trump,’ and that’s nothing but an insult to every Californian who is desperate for something to change in this state.”
Indeed, it is difficult to have a substantive debate when your opponent refuses to answer questions and instead offers nothing but attack lines. But Hilton, well known as a former Fox News host – and less so for his orchestration of the 2010 election that made David Cameron the British PM – should have seen this coming. He is far from a political neophyte.
Yes, he pitched ideas to the viewing public, including eliminating state taxes on the first $150,000 of annual earnings and instituting a flat 8% on everything over that, which would likely be popular in the state that ranks 48th overall in terms of its tax competitiveness. But he failed to break through the noise and was visibly frustrated on the stage by Becerra’s non-answers.
Hilton may have been the winner on policy and planning, but that wasn’t the game being played.
California Polling Precipice
President Trump is wildly unpopular in the Golden State. An NBCUniversal Local and Telemundo Station Group survey released Tuesday suggests that 64% disapprove of the current president’s performance. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll of California Republicans found his overall approval had slipped to 76% – down seven points from last year.
Tying Hilton to Trump was a solid strategy for Becerra, one that seems to have paid off. In a state that has not elected a Republican for president or the Senate since 1988, the GOP hopeful should have played his cards better.
After all, the current governor, Gavin Newsom, is not an entirely popular figure – despite his presidential hopes. A Politico/UC Berkeley Citrin Center poll last week found that 55% disapproved of his performance in office. Much of that was driven by Republicans and independents. Hilton could well have shot back at Becerra with “Newsom, Newsom, Newsom” just as effectively.
Hilton correctly argued that Becerra was a “career politician” who was deeply embedded in the political “machine in Sacramento.” A huge number of Californians have simply up and left the state, and things are – by most metrics – on a downward trajectory.
The Trump-endorsed candidate would have been far better off leaning into that negative slide and insisting that repeating the same old playbook with the same people was going to result in a whole lot of folks losing their collective sanity. And, for one brief moment, it seemed he was going to do precisely that. In an ironic twist, Becerra at one point attacked Hilton's tax plan by repeating the old line that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.
Hilton's rapid-fire response? "Like voting Democrat."
Becerra leads by as much as 25 points in one of the least competitive gubernatorial races in the country. While many may applaud Hilton’s courage at even attempting to displace the Sacramento machine, last night’s debate was not the lever to move the political world.
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