California Democrats Roll the Dice in Crowded Governor’s Race

In the RealClearPolitics polling average, the Republican candidates, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are in the top two spots, each with more than 13% support. Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell comes in third with an even 13%. Former Rep. Katie Porter and billionaire Tom Steyer are considered the other top contenders, but an increasing number of California Democrats are coalescing around Swalwell, who just shot up in an Emerson College poll released on March 11. The survey showed 17% of voters support the representative, four points ahead of Hilton and six ahead of Bianco. But 39% of independents remain undecided.

If only one Republican qualifies for the general election, he would probably be a prohibitive underdog against any Democratic opponent, considering the huge gap in voter registration. If a Democrat is leading as the primary nears, that person might try to indirectly boost Hilton or Bianco into second place, most likely by tying the contender to President Donald Trump to increase the candidate’s standing among the GOP electorate. Nudging a Republican into second place could protect the Democratic frontrunner from having to duke it out with a party member in November, making the road to a win a bit easier – if it even worked. It helped Democrat Adam Schiff secure a US Senate seat two years ago, but the tactic is difficult to execute, especially with non-leading candidates carving up a fifth of the vote.

Villaraigosa seems to think a nudge won’t be necessary. He told CalMatters, a California news website, that the GOP electorate will probably unite behind whichever candidate Trump endorses. “When that happens,” said Villaraigosa, “that person is going to surge up and the other (Republican is) going to go down, it’s as simple as that.”

Predictions

Even if all eight Democrats remain in the race, it seems almost certain that one will advance to the general election. According to political strategist Paul Mitchell’s primary simulator, if the current field remains, there’s a 21% chance that both Republicans will advance past the primary, raising red flags for the blue team. But a faceoff including one candidate from each party is the most likely scenario, with a 76% probability. A Hilton-Swalwell matchup is twice as likely as one with Bianco vs Swalwell.

Since some Democratic candidates have already shown a strong unwillingness to help narrow the field, one wonders how they will react if a party member tries to boost a Republican to manipulate the November matchup. It seems the Democratic contenders are playing for keeps with little interest in helping the party increase its chances of averting a major upset. For all their talk of unity, it appears that many in the party prefer fighting among themselves. The road between now and June could further divide them and widen the path for the first Republican in more than a decade to govern California.