Beijing Behaves Badly After Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit

United States Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi received the Taipei government’s highest civilian award during her Taiwan visit – and the official Chinese response was a military tantrum. The mainland leadership expressed its rage over the diplomatic outreach by hastily organizing a live-fire exercise near and, according to some reports, inside Taiwan's territorial waters. The military actions included a variety of People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships and combat jets, including Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 two-seat multi-role fighters. Mobilizing PLAN and conducting joint live-fire exercises with its land and air forces is nothing new, but this specific action looks more like a blockade than regular training maneuvers.

China’s Broader Purpose Behind the Taiwan Visit Response

The obvious near-term reason for the exercise is to demonstrate the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) displeasure over Speaker Pelosi's diplomatic trip and her strong words of support for the self-governed island of Taiwan. After repeated warnings and threats of severe repercussions by the Chinese defense and foreign ministries to the US and a caution directed at President Biden personally not to allow the visit – a topic of a recent phone conversation with President Xi Jinping – China was obligated to do something. After several weeks of hostile rhetoric, Beijing had to save face. The People's Republic of China (PRC) chose the occasion to demonstrate that its forces could, albeit for a short time, deploy and surround Taiwan to show the world and, principally, the US it's prepared for an invasion.

However, there could also be more of an "inside baseball" rationale behind the PRC making such an issue of the American legislator's Taiwan visit. Last year, on the 100th anniversary of CCP rule of the mainland, President Xi vowed to reunify greater China with the independent and autonomously governed Taiwan. "Solving the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of the motherland are the unswerving historical tasks of the Chinese Communist Party and the common aspiration of all Chinese people," Xi pledged in a speech, Reuters explained. The narrative is consistent with what Xi has said since he came to his leadership status. "China has increasingly forcefully declared that Taiwan must be brought under its control by force if necessary and in defiance of Washington and other backers of the island's democracy," the Associated Press reported.

Additionally, the Pelosi trip was a convenient excuse for Xi to flex China's military muscle since he is seeking a third five-year term leading the CCP. Of course, a hardline resolve on the Taiwan independence problem is helpful to Xi's aspirations. But the relatively large Chinese military response directed at the Taipei government sends a broader message.

China Responds to US Pacific Operations

As a practical matter, the extensive Chinese maneuvers also could be in response to a US-Japan combined exercise last month that included 52 military aircraft flying missions to "demonstrate tactical coordination between allies," Stars and Stripes reported. Additionally, the PLAN would naturally take notice of this year's Rim of the Pacific or RIMPAC, which recently took place from late June to early August. The major biennial training event included the participation of 26 countries, "38 surface ships, four submarines, nine national land forces, more than 30 unmanned systems, approximately 170 aircraft, and more than 25,000 personnel," US Navy sources stated.

Furthermore, the US Pacific Fleet (PACFLEET) is expanding its reach by enlarging the role of the 3rd Fleet in the Pacific region, which would allow a forward presence of an additional "maneuver arm" to complement the current US Navy’s Pacific 7th Fleet operations. "We also have been tasked to practice, be prepared to rehearse, be able to operate as a maritime operations center forward. So, we have plans over the next couple of years to do expeditionary command and control, either from ships or from Australia or the Philippines," Vice Admiral Michael Boyle, commander, 3rd Fleet, told US Naval Institute News.

Looking at what could easily be viewed narrowly as Beijing's anger at the US defying China's warnings to nix Pelosi's visit may be missing President Xi's and the CCP leadership's broader-purpose communique. When the PRC says it will take back Taiwan inevitably, sooner rather than later, the US should roll those statements into its China strategy. The Biden administration should not treat Xi's clear intentions as it did Russian President Putin's unambiguous explanation of how he intended to assimilate Ukraine. Pelosi's Taiwan visit may have been the catalyst for the current dust-up with the Chinese mainland, but nothing suggests the CCP's live-fire exercise is the end of it. China is coming for Taiwan. The question is: When?

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.