The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump is sitting on 47% approval, the exact same place Obama was during the same time in his first term. Despite a boost in black voters approval last week, this number seems to have settled back juts below its original level, which remains almost double where it was upon his election.
It’s going to be a difficult week for the president as second-tier Democrat contenders try to stay in the race before the cut-off for the primary debates on Aug. 28. We can expect them to go all or nothing in their attacks on Trump and the Republicans in a bid to show they are combative enough to warrant a top spot and get donations from across the country. Many of the contenders are getting the bulk of their funding from their home states; this has to change if they want to stay in the race for 2020.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 47% ( – 1% )
- Congress – 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 5/2
- Kamala Harris – 11/4
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/4
- Bernie Sanders – 5/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/2
- Andrew Yang – 14/1
Biden maintains the top spot, putting him directly in line with the polls coming out across the country, suffering only a quarter-point loss over the last week. This small drop can likely be attributed to Elizabeth Warren performing well in Iowa polling, showing that she’s making gains on the former VP.
Bernie Sanders managed to increase his odds after a slow steady decline. Could this be something to do with qualifying for the third round primary debates? As the field inevitably tightens, those who supported candidates more on the far left find their chosen contender on the brink of falling out so rally around the original Democratic Socialist.
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 5/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/2
- Kamala Harris – 13/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 25/1
- Cory Booker – 30/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 30/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 40/1
There’s almost no change whatsoever this week in the presidential odds, which in betting terms means the field is solidifying. Donal Trump remains the heavy favorite to win the White House in 2020 with Joe Biden still a distant second on 5/1.
With August 28 being the deadline to qualify for the Democratic Party primary debates, we will likely see a lot of movement in these numbers before the end of the month. Those who bet on the outsider candidates will be re-evaluating and putting their cash on the candidates left standing. If the polls are anything to go by – which they often aren’t – we’ll see a broad coalition forming around a Biden/Harris ticket. As Warren seems the most well-placed to threaten the frontrunner, she’ll be taking all the heat.
- Impeachment – 1/6
- Resignation – 1/12
- Trump Approval ratings to fall below 20% during the first term – 2/1
- Trump to have his likeness minted on US currency during his term – 100/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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