One of the best polls around – Rasmussen’s White House Watch – reveals that President Trump is beginning to gain traction with younger people. As well, those listed as “other” in the race category strongly prefer the president over Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
In this, the fourth week of the Rasmussen survey, which targets 2,500 likely voters, the former vice president polled at 48% to Trump’s 45%. In all four matchups, Biden has led Trump with the percentage swinging a few points each week. But as always, the crosstabs are more than a bit revealing and this week downright surprising.
The Young Americans
Generally, the older the demographic, the more conservative the group. It goes without saying that Trump is keen with conservatives, and it is interesting to note that the president bested Mr. Biden 47% to 45% in the youngest demographic age group, 18-39. This is quite the turn around from last week’s White House Watch that had Biden at 47% and Trump with only 39% in this category. However, this is not a statistical anomaly because, in the first of these Rasmussen White House polls, Trump outscored Biden 45% to 41%. It appears that young people are wavering in their voting preferences. As such, both the Biden and Trump campaigns are wise to court younger voters.
Meanwhile, over in the race demographic, there appears to be a wide disparity – not in the black category but in those who list their race as “other.” Among these people who presumably include the Latin/Hispanic/Asian populations, President Trump showed substantial numbers – 51% – to Biden’s 37%. This is the highest number recorded in this crosstab for Trump thus far in the Rasmussen survey. Last week the president polled 31% with blacks; this week, he dropped by 2 points to 29% – still a breathtakingly large number for a Republican.
Nevertheless, where the president remains significantly behind is with women. This week he rose a few points in the female gender tab to 44%, but that’s still 5 points behind Mr. Biden. As well, the Delaware politician cleans Trump’s clock in the moderate voter category, 53% to 35%.
Putting the Puzzle Together
It’s anyone’s guess why young people are beginning to gravitate to President Trump. Part of his popularity with this demographic could be economic. That is, young Americans may assess a Trump administration will be better when it comes to jobs and employment opportunities. If one keeps in mind the broad age range within this category, economics could be a factor for those 25 and above who are having children, buying homes, and paying taxes. Another reason could be the continued civil unrest, which may be alarming to young female voters who place a high value on personal safety.
But a national poll can only get you so far. As anyone who was alive in 2016 knows, the battleground states are where all the action is leading up to November 3. Real Clear Politics classifies 211 electoral votes as toss-ups. RCP shows Biden with an edge in most of these states that are still swinging except for Iowa and Texas, where the president holds a slight lead.
So, for now, the seesaw continues with Biden in the catbird seat. Poll after poll puts Biden ahead, indicating it is his race to lose. Of course, Trump is used to running from behind and perhaps even prefers it. After all, it’s not exactly a secret that America loves an underdog.
Read more from Leesa K. Donner.