The Candidates’ Market Report
Despite all odds, President Trump appears to weathering the impeachment storm with little or no impact on his popularity; either those that voted for him in 2016 don’t buy what Nancy Pelosi is selling, or they do buy it, and just rate the Democrats as an even poorer choice. But it’s not all bad for Congress as for the first time in weeks, the body has seen an uptick of 1%. This subtle rise may increase sharply if House Democrats eventually take an actual vote on whether to start impeaching the president rather than just talk about it.
When approval ratings don’t change, even though an important historical event is taking place, it often turns out that the voting public is way ahead on the curve and are not quite willing to accept the narrative. However, this slight uptick for Congress may, if it is maintained, result in the more vocal supporters of impeachment keeping their seats come 2020.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 48% ( no change )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 7/2
- Pete Buttigieg – 10/1
- Bernie Sanders – 10/1
- Andrew Yang – 11/1
- Kamala Harris – 14/1
This is a stunning week for odds watchers. Elizabeth Warren has maintained her lead, but surprisingly, Joe Biden has also managed to claw back half a point. The Biden Bump likely comes from Senator Bernie Sanders’ recent heart attack effectively knocking him out of the race. While many thought that all of Bernie’s support would automatically go to Warren, it appears that early jumpers are actually pitching for the Uncle Joe.
But let’s not count Sanders out entirely. The Vermont senator has dropped two whole points but could claw back some standing if he can turn up for the next debate showdown looking fit and healthy. For now, the contender capitalizing on this possibly brief time-out is Mayor Pete Buttigieg who now gained an extra point and managed to tie with Sanders. Being joint third will give the political newcomer some much-needed steam to his campaign, and of course, more donations.
Kamala Harris is on a slippery slope losing two points and dropping to clear outsider status with 14/1 odds. Perhaps the real dark horse to watch is Andrew Yang, who so far has managed to stay on the outskirts, but is inching his way into the inner circle.
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/2
- Joe Biden – 7/1
- Andrew Yang – 16/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 20/1
- Bernie Sanders – 20/1
- Kamala Harris – 25/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Cory Booker – 66/1
- Beto O’Rourke – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
Andrew Yang is defying the odds and rushing to the leading pack with Pete Buttigieg hot on his heels. While Yang appears poised to step into Biden’s shoes should the former VP stumble over a backfiring Ukraine scandal, Buttigieg could be the man to take the Bernie Thunder.
Warren still has the best chances of winning the White House for the Democrats, but President Trump is firmly seated on his throne and appears not to be taking any hits over the impeachment inquiry. Bernie Sanders lost a massive six points this week and it is going to take a strong showing to regain lost ground.
VP Mike Pence gained 10 points, and Nikki Haley shot into the lists at 50/1; impressive considering she has not announced her candidacy. O’Rourke, Booker, and Gabbard are stuck on a campaign-ending 66/1.
- Impeachment – 2/5
- Resignation – 1/12
- Any Mexican airport to be named after Trump – 66/1
- New York Stock Exchange to fully suspend Trading following Trump Impeachment Confirmation – 11/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.