The Senate is split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats plus the two Independents who caucus with them – but while the latter group seems unified on the issue of firearms, the former certainly isn’t. After examining the statements and replies to reporters of all 100 senators since the Uvalde massacre, it seems the GOP in the upper chamber can be split into three groups: those wavering on or even openly favoring gun control, those standing firm on the Second Amendment, and those who either haven’t decided – or have but don’t yet want to reveal their decisions.
Not These Republicans
John Barrasso (R-WY) wasted neither time nor verbiage making his point when Business Insider caught up to him on his way to the elevator in the Capitol Building and asked if he or any of his colleagues would support a red-flag law. “Not this Republican,” the Wyoming senator declared as the elevator doors closed.
Not all were as dismissive – or even as firm – as Barrasso. “A federal law? I don’t know about that,” Missouri’s Josh Hawley said. Thom Tillis of North Carolina went as far as to say he would discuss red-flag ideas, but only with the goal of crafting “model legislation” for states; he’s absolutely against a federal mandate. Florida’s Marco Rubio also rejects a federal mandate, but he introduced a bill to dedicate DOJ funding to states that do adopt such laws.
“Guns are not the problem, OK? People are the problem,” Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) said. “We’ve had guns forever. And we’re going to continue to have guns.” Several Republicans deflected such questions away from gun control and toward hardening schools and arming teachers. Some pointed out that no additional legislation would have stopped the most recent shootings.
(Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
The following 18 GOP senators have made it clear they won’t support federal legislation further restricting the Second Amendment:
- John Barrasso (R-WY)
- Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)
- Mike Braun (R-IN)
- Kevin Cramer (R-ND)
- Ted Cruz (R-TX)
- Steve Daines (R-MT)
- Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
- Bill Hagerty (R-TN)
- Josh Hawley (R-MO)
- Ron Johnson (R-WI)
- James Lankford (R-OK)
- Mike Rounds (R-SD)
- Marco Rubio (R-FL)
- Richard C. Shelby (R-AL)
- Dan Sullivan (R-AK)
- Thom Tillis (R-NC)
- Tommy Tuberville (R-AL)
- Roger F. Wicker (R-MS)
A Whole Lot of Questions
All told, 23 Republicans in the Senate either refused to answer questions on the topic, answered but were unclear on just where they stand, or implied that they would be open to discussing the options. Many of those, of course – especially in the “refused to answer” camp – are practically guaranteed “no” votes on anything the Democrats cook up to further restrict the right to keep and bear arms. Louisiana’s John Kennedy, for instance, has yet to say how he’ll vote when Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) eventually and inevitably pushes some bill or other to the floor. But he made his position quite clear after the 2021 mass shooting in Boulder, CO: “I don’t believe we have a gun control problem in America, I believe we have an idiot control problem.”
On the other hand, some seem to be waffling enough that they may well support a gun control bill if it’s one they think can be spun as not an infringement on the Second Amendment – like expanded background checks and extreme risk protection orders, for example. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky seems more open than most, and Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa, Deb Fischer of Nebraska, and Todd Young of Indiana all say they’re still looking into the matter and welcome discussion. Those who haven’t declared firmly one way or the other are:
- John Boozman (R-AR)
- Richard Burr (R-NC)
- Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)
- Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
- Tom Cotton (R-AR)
- Mike Crapo (R-ID)
- Joni Ernst (R-IA)
- Deb Fischer (R-NE)
- John Hoeven (R-ND)
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
- James M. Inhofe (R-OK)
- John Kennedy (R-LA)
- Mike Lee (R-UT)
- Cynthia M. Lummis (R-WY)
- Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
- Jerry Moran (R-KS)
- Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
- Rand Paul (R-KY)
- James E. Risch (R-ID)
- Ben Sasse (R-NE)
- Tim Scott (R-SC)
- John Thune (R-SD)
- Todd Young (R-IN)
That the largest of the three is the “maybe” or “undeclared” list is worrisome to Second Amendment advocates – especially given where the final nine stand. Roy Blunt (R-MO), Susan Collins (R-ME), John Cornyn (R-TX), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Roger Marshall (R-KS), Rob Portman (R-OH), Rick Scott (R-FL), and Patrick Toomey (R-PA) have all said they’re open to either expanded background checks or red-flag laws, or have actively supported similar efforts in the past.
There’s certainly no guarantee that all nine would support any one specific bill put forth by gun grabbers, but there are only two in the Democratic caucus who have yet to declare their intentions in the coming votes: New Hampshire’s Margaret Hassan and Brian Schatz of Hawaii. Given the record of Democratic Party unity in almost all things lately, it seems unlikely either of them will side with the Founders and the Constitution. Even Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is willing to support the measures currently being kicked around, though he was careful to clarify that he remains a staunch defender of the filibuster. What this means, of course, is that the expanded background check and red-flag bills will have a nigh-guaranteed 50-vote start, with nine Republicans – just one shy of the ten needed to invoke cloture over a filibuster – who are open to those measures, as well as a good portion of the undecided who might just feel comfortable enough with the idea if they see a significant number of their own party already on board.
