The Bible famously advises us that “with the Lord, a day is like a thousand years, and a thousand years are like a day.” From an earthly perspective, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once intoned, a week is a long time in politics. Events can and often do disrupt and overtake standing narratives in the twinkling of an eye. That is why forecasting what will happen over an entire year is generally a fool’s errand. So, rather than throwing out madcap predictions for 2026 designed to titillate the senses, which we will leave to those clever clairvoyant psychics, let’s focus on events that are foreseeable in the upcoming year.
A Quarter Millennium of America
The country will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence leading up to and beyond July 4. But to whose benefit will it accrue? If you know anything about Donald Trump — is there anyone who doesn’t by now? — you can confidently predict that he will place himself squarely in the center of celebrations across the land. Much like Ronald Reagan commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Statue of Liberty with tall ships, spectacular fireworks, and a memorable speech on “Liberty Weekend” in 1986, the 47th president will surely wrap himself in the flag, hoping the likely surge of patriotism will benefit his Republican Party in November’s midterm elections.
Ah, yes, the midterms. In this bitterly divided country, what will the final division of power look like once the smoke clears and 468 seats in Congress have been secured? Of course, much will depend on the state of the economy. As is his wont, the president has set an astronomically high bar for 2026, proclaiming that we will be entering “the golden age of America.” But history has rarely been kind to the party that won the presidency two years earlier. In the 21st century, only in the congressional elections of 2002, one year after 9/11, has either party that won the White House gained seats 24 months after winning the presidency.
Midterm elections are largely driven by the grievances of the out-party and the energy thus generated to show up and vote. And despite their lowest approval this century, Democrats will still be the morning-line favorites to capture the House, where the GOP currently holds a razor-thin advantage. In the six midterms of the 21st century, the out-party has gained an average of 31 seats. The Senate, where Republicans hold a three-seat advantage and the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance, presents a far more daunting task for Democrats. But given that President Trump has driven them to the point of derangement, one suspects the Dems will be satisfied enough just to win the House and break up the GOP trifecta.
Maduro Headed for the Door
Next we come to Venezuela. When a US president orders up everything short of a land invasion against a thoroughly corrupt dictatorial regime exporting lethal narcotics to America — blowing up drug boats, seizing oil tankers, forming a full naval blockade, and adding ever more crippling sanctions — what do you expect will come next? Answer: the end of the ruinous regime of Nicolas Maduro. With Trump pressing in by land, sea, and air, it is almost impossible to envision the Venezuelan president surviving the year. The woman overwhelmingly elected president before Maduro discarded the results and clung to power, 2025 Nobel Peace Prize Winner María Corina Machado, is rested, ready, and fully prepared to govern. She will most certainly offer welcome relief from Maduro’s drug-drenched corruption and the unrelenting misery of life under his iron rule — unless she is overwhelmed by residual pro-Maduro resistance.
Much attention will be focused on the Supreme Court’s task of sorting out the explosive issue of birthright citizenship and whether it is rightly applicable to children born to illegal immigrants. The 14th Amendment states, “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States.” But the clear intent of the amendment was to grant citizenship to slaves freed following the Civil War. The administration will base its claim that so-called anchor babies should not be granted automatic citizenship because they are not “subject to the jurisdiction thereof,” i.e., the US government, while advocates for the opposite position will point to the plain language of the amendment and historical precedent. It is hard to envision a Supreme Court dominated by strict constitutionalists ignoring the wording of the amendment, so don’t hold your breath waiting for the High Court to overturn the long-standing interpretation of this post-Civil War addition to the US Constitution.
2026 — It’s the Economy, Stupid
Finally, we come to the economy, which is almost certain to affect the midterms more than any other issue. Predicting future economic conditions is so difficult that even most economists have consistently failed at the task. But we do know that Trump is fixated on growth, which soared to more than 4% in the third quarter of 2025, and that his innovative policy of no taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security should leave more money in our pockets. Meanwhile, with the first reconciliation package that included those provisions, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” now on the books, expect a second reconciliation bill to be passed in the spring or summer. It is expected to focus broadly on affordability, law and order, and the American family. Whether voters will see enough economic progress to grant the GOP continued control of Congress is entirely unpredictable, but you can be confident of the corollary: If the people remain as dissatisfied with economic conditions as polls say they are now, Election Day 2026 will probably be kind to Democrats, especially with Trump not on the ballot.
All in all, the upcoming year may well represent the last chance for President Trump and Republicans to leave an indelible footprint on the country. Trump does everything big, nothing small. He will continue to test the limits of his power and issue sweeping executive orders that have largely defined his second administration, many of them challenging existing norms and infuriating the stultified Washington establishment. Indeed, after four years of his somnambulistic predecessor, the surest prediction for the new year is that the Trump thrill ride of 2025 will continue unabated in 2026.
