In the aftermath of Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel, the US and the world are waiting to see how the Israel Defense Force (IDF) will respond. No one doubts that the IDF will deal Tehran a bloody nose. But just how bloody, that is the question. As expected, President Joe Biden has put in his two cents by cautioning Israel not to strike Iran’s developing nuclear weapons capability – but will Israel listen? Should Israel listen?
Israel Will Retaliate
After the massive onslaught of ballistic missiles launched by Iran to attack Israel, it’s not a matter of if but when the IDF will retaliate. The targets will be meaningful to the mullahs in Tehran and significant to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In an interview with Sky News, William Cohen, Bill Clinton’s one-time secretary of defense, said he thought the Israelis would respond aggressively by striking military sites, weapons production, chemical facilities, and possibly nuclear. “President Biden has indicated that he is with Israel but does not support attacking Iran’s military capabilities as far as their production of uranium or trying to enrich uranium to the point where they can make a weapon,” Cohen said.
In voicing another perspective, former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, told NewsNation, “Well, I think Israel, this time, is not going to listen to the Biden administration. Tell him to take the win. …This time, I do think there will be a very substantial response.” Bolton went on to list the IRGC bases and headquarters, oil infrastructure, and, yes, Iran’s nuclear weapons development facilities. “Any of those targets would be perfectly legitimate for Israel to go after,” the former ambassador said.
In a televised statement after the Iranian ballistic missile attack on the small country of nine million citizens, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his country’s view of Iran’s actions crystal clear. “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and will pay for it,” he vowed. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”
Responding to a press question regarding US support for Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, Biden said, “We’re in discussion. I think, I think that would be a little … anyway, that would be a little [voice fades away].” What might have come after “would be a little” is anyone’s guess. If history is any indicator, it probably would have been “that would be a little excessive.” From previous statements, Americans know Biden doesn’t support Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, but just what the Biden administration does think are fair-game targets is not clear.
One often discussed target is Tehran’s oil distribution capability. Much of Iran’s crude oil is shipped from Kharg Island, about 300 miles northwest of the Hormuz Strait and just off the Iranian province of Bushehr. Additionally, The New York Times identified Kharg Island as providing a port for shipping significant quantities of oil. It could be the ultimate irony for the Biden administration’s attempt to sanction such oil exports. Israel hitting Kharg Island could make Israel’s point and make Biden’s dreams of sanctions come true at the same time.
There Are Many Appealing Targets in Iran
Other military targets might be ballistic missile manufacturing and warehousing facilities, IRGC staging and training areas, and the IRGC headquarters. In 1987, the US Navy destroyed half of Iran’s Navy. Today, the IRGC naval forces remain a potential target. Sinking all or some portion of Iran’s submarine fleet would be an impressive statement that Tehran might not recover from soon.
Yes, and truth be told, Iran’s nuclear weapons development and research plants are enticing targets. Iran is on the doorstep of developing and producing nuclear weapons. The world’s number one sponsor of terror around the globe having atomic warheads is a threat to more than just Israel. It’s confusing, on the one hand, to remember that President Biden, some months ago, asserted the US would not allow Iran to possess a nuclear weapon. Then, on the other hand, when the opportunity to have someone else, Israel, ensure that Iran does not develop atomic weapons by destroying Tehran’s aspirations to be a nuclear weapons power, Biden backtracks. The US national security team has demonstrated a persistent fear of Iran since taking office. Biden’s tiptoeing around Tehran’s sponsorship of terror and proxy attacks on US bases, outposts, and warships in the region is inexplicable. In any case, Israel is not waiting for US advice on when and how to proceed.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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