In life and war, nothing is for sure. Following the negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between American and Ukrainian representatives, a ceasefire and way forward to peace in the former Soviet state’s conflict with Russia seemed possible. However, amid a dispute between the two warring powers, one bent on survival and the other focused on conquest, an armistice leading to peace is tricky. The Ukraine government agreed to the conditions set out in the 30-day pause in fighting. Russia, however, is just coming to the party.
A Ceasefire Between Ukraine and Russia
Secretary of State Marco Rubio was guardedly optimistic in announcing the agreement between the US and Ukraine. However, he quickly pointed out that this only works if Russia's President Vladimir Putin agrees as well. Rubio made it clear, though, that the US has put the onus on the Kremlin to make this peace deal work.
Where Russia stands in the near-term had been difficult to determine, and President Putin was surprisingly vague regarding his position. However, in a breaking story from Moscow, the Associated Press reported that he “agrees in principle with a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, but the terms need to be worked out, and he emphasized that it should pave the way to lasting peace."
Before that story broke, Just the News had reported: "President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, on Thursday rejected a 30-day ceasefire deal proposed earlier this week by Ukraine and United States." Timely, delicate, and consequential transactions between nations can drive circumstances rapidly, as Mr. Ushakov discovered.
In announcing his acceptance of the US-Ukraine proposition, Putin expressed his concern that it would be just an opportunity for Ukraine to rearm forces on the front lines. To show how difficult a negotiating process this is, during previous attempts at peace, particularly in recognition of Christmas, Ukraine was strongly critical of Russia accepting the pause in fighting to resupply and refresh its troops. According to the AP, Putin told a press conference in Moscow, "So the idea itself is correct, and we certainly support it. But there are issues that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to discuss it with our American colleagues and partners."
Meanwhile, President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, landed in Moscow to provide details of the accord. His job will not be easy. Everything about the fractured relationships between Russia and the US, plus the residual tension between the US and Ukraine, cast a shadow of intense mistrust. Success may be a long-drawn-out effort. Therein lies the problem. Ukraine's President Zelensky must press for an end to the fighting sooner than later.
Ukrainian fighters' initial successes in moving into and capturing the Russian Kursk region are slipping away. Russian forces have recaptured the area's largest town, and what Zelensky had hoped to be a territorial bargaining position is evaporating. If the negotiations for lasting peace come down to a discussion about trading territory, losing Kursk puts Kyiv at a disadvantage.
Trump’s Sanction Threats Were Important
However, the timing of Putin's tentative agreement to the ceasefire suggests that pressure on him by the recent comments of President Trump may have been compelling. When confirmation of the Kremlin's willingness to enter into a pause in the fighting was not timely, the US president's Truth Social megaphone reminded the players:
"Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large-scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED. To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now before it is too late. Thank you!!!"
What Trump's posts lack in the subtlety of polite diplomacy, they make up for with clarity. During a press availability in the Oval Office Thursday (Mar. 13) with President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, the latter commented: “Finally with Ukraine, you broke the deadlock. As you said all the killing and young people dying; cities getting destroyed. The fact that you did that started the dialogue with the Russians and successful talks in Saudi Arabia with the Ukrainians. I really want to commend you for that.” What Trump has shown is that when he makes promises, whether on the campaign trail or as president, he keeps them, and Putin knows this.
Compared to this time last month, the first steps in bringing an end to the horrifying destruction and loss of life appear closer. The willingness of Russia and Ukraine to engage in discussions to implement the 30-day ceasefire is a welcomed development.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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