A presidential candidate was almost assassinated – twice. That same candidate was convicted of felonies. Another had the worst debate performance imaginable and was unceremoniously kicked to the curb. And yet another was handed a major party nomination without winning a single vote. The craziest and most polarizing presidential election in memory will finally and mercifully reach its conclusion on Election Day. Or more precisely, all the votes will have been cast.
Barring a decisive victory by either candidate, the counting could continue for days as it did in 2020. A live possibility is that neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris would actually do what had been pro forma through the broad sweep of American political history: concede on election night or the morning after.
Election Day Panic
For those on both sides engaging in bedwetting, and unable or unwilling to follow the undoubtedly searing drama that will continue well into the night and perhaps beyond, some comfort is to be found in the likelihood that we will get revealing results as early as 8 pm ET on Election Day. They will provide an early sense of whether the race is as close as most pollsters and pundits have predicted and may well offer at least tentative answers to several pivotal questions. Will Trump enjoy major gains among black and Latino voters? Will Harris’ clear advantage with women cancel out Trump’s dominance among men? Will the Republicans' newfound lead in party registration for the first time in decades prove decisive? Has Harris successfully navigated her association with an unpopular president? When the smoke clears and the dust settles, who will control the Senate and House?
The first time we might start to get these questions answered is one hour after the polls close at 7 pm ET in the swing state of Georgia. In 2020, Joe Biden's victory there was so narrow that disputes over the results went on for weeks. This time around, the state began counting early votes on Oct. 19 and says it will release a large portion of its results — up to 80% — by about 8 pm, giving us a sense of voting patterns and how they might carry over to other swing states.
Polls close at 7:30 pm ET in another swing state, North Carolina, where officials also estimate that about 80% of its final tally will be released by 8 pm ET. A third swing state, Arizona, will also release results quickly, but voting there will not conclude until 9 pm ET. Therefore, by close to 10 pm ET, we will have received a treasure trove of granular information, including exit polls, indicating the direction of the race, at least in the swing states of the Sun Belt.
On the other hand, as we discovered four years ago, Rust Belt battlegrounds are quite another matter. Pennsylvania will be the most difficult to call, as tabulations in the Keystone State (and it is exactly that in this election) are likely to continue for several days, a source of explosive controversy in 2020. Michigan also is expected to take at least a few days to release its final tally, whereas Wisconsin is likely to unveil its final results by tomorrow morning. If the election hangs in the balance after tonight, this trio of states in the upper Midwest will undoubtedly keep people on edge until later this week or even beyond.
Red and Blue States
But indicators of how the election will turn out are not limited to the seven swing states. The results in the 43 red and blue states considered non-competitive could be just as revealing. For example, following the closest race in American history, the showdown in 2000 between George W. Bush and Al Gore, Florida instituted an efficient voting system that enables the state to report its final results shortly after its polls close at 8 pm ET. Trump won the Sunshine State by 3% in 2020. If he wins this time by, say 8%-10%, it will reveal a surge for the prospective 47th president that is likely to carry over to the rest of the nation. But if Harris is competitive, holding her margin of defeat down to, say, 2%-5%, it could signal a long night or week ahead.
New Hampshire, a medium-blue state thought to be safe for Harris, is small, and the vast majority of voters there will cast their ballots today. With polls in the Granite State closing at 8 pm ET, we will see shortly thereafter if Harris wins by the margin polls are predicting, about 5%, or if she or Trump overperforms. Other small states should also report their results relatively early. And while few expect Trump to win a blue state or Harris a red state, the actual margins in these states compared to expected margins will add to the growing picture of how this election will ultimately turn out.
Delaware, another small state whose results will come early, shows Harris ahead by about 20% in the polls. But what if Trump loses by, say, 12-15% or Harris wins by 30%? In Alabama, another fast-reporting state, Trump is expected to win by roughly 20%. But what if his margin is just, say, 15% or 35%? Data from every state will be valuable as voters on both sides fret over the fate of the seven battlegrounds.
It is best to remember one thing as you sweat out Election Day. No matter who wins, the republic will survive. It always has -- through secession, a ruinous Civil War, two world wars, a crippling depression, terrorist attacks, multiple assassinations, and failed presidencies. Those on either side who are prepared to declare that we have reached the end of days because of the outcome would be wise to re-read the US Constitution, specifically its provisions for a system of checks and balances that prevent unrestricted power by any president.
If Trump loses, conservatives can take comfort in their supremacy on the Supreme Court and possibly one or both chambers of Congress. If Harris is defeated, Democrats can still rest in the certainty that they will continue to dominate so many of the country’s major institutions, from media to academia. The world will not end on Nov. 5, 2024. Keep telling yourself that when jubilation or panic rises or falls with every new revelation.
