Joe Biden has 253 Electoral College votes, and President Trump has 214. Both candidates still have pathways to victory, but each state will be fought over. To claim the necessary 270 votes, Biden needs to win either Pennsylvania or a combination of any other two states (not including Alaska). President Trump needs to win at least four states.
The States Still In Play
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):
With 95% of estimated ballots reporting, Joe Biden holds a 0.3% lead (roughly 20,000 votes) over President Trump. Estimates suggest that several hundred thousand votes are yet to be tallied, mostly from districts that have so far favored Biden.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes):
President Trump holds a 1.4% lead (approx. 75,000 votes), with 95% reporting. Officials have stated that they will be examining a number of ballots to see whether they are eligible, including 41,000 provisional ballots and more than 100,000 absentee ballots.
Georgia (16 electoral votes):
Joe Biden has a 0.1% lead with more than 98% of ballots counted. There are thought to be around 9,000 overseas and military ballots still to be counted, which should all be collected by the end of the day. This contest will finish with a fractional difference and almost certainly see a recount.
Arizona (11 electoral votes):
This state has been the focal point of much chagrin as it was initially declared for Biden and then put back in play. Joe Biden leads by 1.5% (roughly 47,000 votes), but with only 90% reporting, this could easily change. The next update on totals is expected to be released at 11 a.m. Eastern.
Nevada (6 electoral votes):
Another state that was called early by many outlets, Nevada presently has Biden leading by 0.9%. Less than 90% of the vote has been reported, and roughly 200,000 ballots are not yet counted. An update is expected later today.
Alaska (3 electoral votes):
The Alaska result is not expected to be finalized for some days as the counting of absentee and mail-in ballots has not yet begun. Presently, President Trump leads with 62.9% of the vote compared to 33% for Joe Biden.
Both parties presently have 48 seats each. There are four seats still in play, three of which are leaning Republican and at least one that will be decided in a runoff.
Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, at 48.7%, holds a slight lead over Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham (46.9%). So far, 93% of the estimated ballots have been counted. However, ballots that have been postmarked by election day will continue to be accepted and counted until Nov. 12, meaning that the race could still flip despite Tillis’ early advantage.
Senator David Perdue (R) is leading challenger Jon Ossoff by 2% and is presently on 49.8%. If a candidate fails to attain at least 50% of the vote in Georgia, it becomes a runoff election, which must be decided by Jan. 5.
With 98% of the vote reported, it is still possible that Perdue could take a clean win.
Dan Sullivan, the incumbent Republican, looks set to claim the Alaska Senate seat by a healthy margin. Although only 50% of the estimated ballots have been reported, he so far has 62.3% of the votes. His challenger, Al Gross (D), is on 32.1%.
Georgia Special Election:
This seat will be a runoff between Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) and Democrat Raphael Warnock. Right now, Warnock has the lead, but there are three challengers in the race. The third contender (who will not be in the runoff) is Republican Doug Collins. The combined Republican vote – with 97% of votes reported – is close to 46% compared with Warnock’s 32.8%. It seems most likely that Collins’ supporters will switch to Loeffler rather than Warnock.