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The Numbers Don’t Lie – Why Trump Wins 2020

Campaigns for the 2020 presidential election have begun in earnest. Every rally, each interview, are part of an unwieldy creature known as the campaign trail. Politicians of all stripes are begging for airtime and making sweeping statements on every imaginable topic in the hopes of earning a few more column inches. But perhaps it is all for naught? According to all major gambling outfits, President Trump is odds on favorite to win the race in 2020. Following the money is always wise advice, yet there are other signs that Trump may be well on his way to victory.

El Paso Turnout

On Monday February 11, Trump took his campaign to El Paso, where he wooed the crowd with promises of the border wall and reminded them of his achievements to date – standard fare for the man who believes himself a master of persuasion. Putting his rhetoric aside, there was something truly startling about the crowd that attended, and it likely has Democrats fearing for the future of their party.

Of those who registered as attendees, 70% identified as Hispanic, and almost 50% identified as Democrat voters. If these numbers are accurate, it could spell major problems for the DNC, not just in the next election cycle, but for years and years to come.

Genuine or Not?

The data on the rally’s audience was put together and provided to Axios by Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale, based on the names and phone numbers given by those wishing to attend, and compared with their voter registration details. It shows:

  • An estimated 70% of registrants were Hispanic.
  • Two-thirds had voted in two or fewer of the past four elections.

But is the information trustworthy?

Over the last two years, almost every statement made by President Trump, his hires, his campaign team, and pretty much anyone who has a nice word to say, has been fact-checked and subjected to the high court of media scrutiny. If Parscale were lying or even exaggerating, it is almost unthinkable that every major news network would not be pouncing. The fact that they haven’t even mentioned his stats is rather telling.

Fear and Loathing

The Hispanic community is one that the Democrats in recent years have come to rely on heavily; it is also one of the fastest growing bases that could decide every election for the next generation. If this formerly reliable demographic decides to jump ship and support either President Trump, or more broadly the Republican Party, it would upset the marginal line on which elections are won and lost.

And what of the significant portion of attendees who are registered as Democrat voters? Were they all there in El Paso just to see their enemy up close? Or is something else happening? Despite media insistence that there is no crisis on the southern U.S. border, those who live in these areas see a very different picture. Whether it is 3,000 unvetted migrants crossing in a single day, or the cartel slaughter taking place just the other side of a dilapidated fence, those on the frontline are facing the heaviest fire. And it may be that they have had just about enough.

One of two things must be true: Either the Hispanic community is starting to lean towards Trump, or the legacy media has decided to give Trump’s campaign manager a free pass. It can’t be both; it can’t be neither. You decide which is more likely.

Read More From Mark Angelides

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