Early voting is officially underway in the Texas primaries, with March 3 serving as the de facto kickoff of the midterm elections. There’s plenty to watch in local and statewide elections, but all eyes are on the high-stakes battles for the US Senate. Democrats are riding high from a special election win in the Texas State Senate last month and hope to carry that momentum forward, while the GOP aims to keep its majority in the chamber. Though the Lone Star State hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office in nearly three decades, Democrats do have a small chance of flipping it, provided the stars align perfectly. Their biggest obstacle, however, might be themselves.
A Texas Democrat Takes the Bait
A few Democratic primary polls from January suggest the matchup between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico could go either way. One survey from the University of Houston showed Crockett ahead of Talarico, 47% to 39%, but Talarico leads by nine points in a poll from Emerson College. In another, this one by Texas Public Opinion Research, they’re in a dead heat. Republicans view Crockett as the weaker opponent and hope she gets the nomination. In fact, if it wasn’t for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) releasing a poll in July with Crockett’s name included, she may not have even entered the race.
Back in June, the NRSC reportedly worried about the potential Democratic opponents and decided to add Crockett’s name to a survey, hoping to give her a nudge if she fared well, according to the news site NOTUS. The poll showed her as the leading Democrat in a hypothetical matchup, and other surveys soon began to include the congresswoman. It didn’t take long for Crockett to announce her bid for the Senate, much to the delight of the GOP. After she entered the race, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said it was “one of the greatest things that’s happened to the Republican Party in a long, long time.”
Talarico, however, might make a more viable nominee. He has tried to position himself as a conventional Democrat while making a national name for himself during a media tour touting progressive politics and religious values. He’s at least trying to reach conservative voters and not just aiming to gather as many Democrats as possible to vote.
“We will not win this race in November with the same old politics of division,” he said during a Jan. 24 debate. This was likely a dig at Crockett’s divisive nature, but a tinge of irony underlies this statement. An intraparty squabble occurred a week ago after a private conversation between Talarico and a Texas-based influencer went public, with the state representative saying he’d “signed up to run against a mediocre Black man, not a formidable and intelligent Black woman.” He was referring to Crockett and Congressman Colin Allred, who dropped out of the Senate race after the congresswoman announced her bid. Crockett somehow viewed Talarico’s comment as an insult to her, calling it a “microaggression.” A bunch of mudslinging followed, with plenty of hyperbole to go around.
Crockett seems to think that she will drive turnout of infrequent voters, that there’s a swell of left-wing voters just waiting for a sufficiently progressive candidate to emerge, a long-running belief that seems to surface each cycle among Democratic competitors in the Lone Star State. A more likely scenario is that her caustic personality and far-left politics will alienate centrist voters and culturally conservative Latinos. Yet she could still win – despite the fact that Talarico would probably do better in the general election. A similar story is happening across the aisle with another contentious clash.
A GOP Runoff?
The University of Houston’s January poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, 38% to 31%, with a third candidate, Rep. Wesley Hunt, drawing 17% support. Other polls exhibit comparable results, though all three contenders are neck-and-neck in a few.
Cornyn is fighting for political survival, hoping not to become the first incumbent since 2012 to lose renomination. His allies have been flooding the airwaves with attack ads against Paxton. The senator saw an uptick in polling numbers last fall, though he isn’t exactly a hometown favorite. But he clearly doesn’t see it that way. “We will have an Election Day massacre,” he told a group of supporters on Feb. 17 at the Serranos Cocina y Cantina in Austin. “Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck.”
Paxton faced impeachment proceedings in 2023 for bribery allegations but was eventually acquitted. He also has faced backlash recently because his wife filed for a divorce on “biblical grounds” and accused him of adultery. Still, he appears to be the favorite to win among the GOP. He achieved celebrity status among the right after suing to overturn the 2020 election and pursuing cases against doctors who provide gender transition services. Yet some Senate Republicans believe such positions could make Paxton vulnerable against a Democratic opponent in the general election.
“My numbers look as good as they ever have,” Paxton told Punchbowl News after an early voting kickoff event in Texas. “John Cornyn’s at risk of finishing third. … He is in serious trouble of not even making a runoff.”
Let’s not forget Hunt, though; his polling numbers suggest it’ll be nearly impossible for any of the three contenders to reach 51% of the vote, making a runoff all but certain. Republicans believe Paxton has the higher floor here and that any runoff would put him in the pole position because those competitions typically draw a smaller, more conservative electorate, a realm in which Paxton should thrive.
It’s a choice between an establishment kind of Republican and the MAGA-aligned Paxton. On the other side, it’s between a champion of resistance with a sharp tongue and somebody who might be able to woo the center. A Paxton-Crockett matchup seems possible, which would likely deliver some fireworks and could hand a win to the GOP, but will Democratic Texans buy into the congresswoman’s divisive politics and caustic attitude? Republicans hope so. Either way, if the blue team keeps fighting among themselves, they could push away swing voters, and then it probably won’t matter who faces off against the GOP nominee.
