President Donald Trump has been trying to convince Russia’s Vladimir Putin to halt hostilities against Ukraine, but to no avail. Sanctions haven’t worked, nor have deals – and now the talks have turned nuclear. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who is currently deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, cautioned Trump to consider Russia’s nuclear capabilities. Was it an off-the-cuff comment, a warning, or a thinly veiled threat? Either way, the American response was to reposition nuclear submarines of our own. Has the situation escalated out of control, or are we – as Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia’s Global Affairs, put it – “only at the level of words”?
Going Nuclear
During his trip to Scotland, Trump announced a ten-day ultimatum (reduced from about 50 days) for Russia to abandon its campaign against Ukraine or face increased tariffs. Dmitry Medvedev’s response was that it didn’t matter whether it was ten or 50 days. All Trump’s bluster was simply a sign that Russia is on the right track and should stay the course. Also, he said Trump would do well to remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand’ can be.”
Russia’s Dead Hand is a mysterious Soviet-era automated system that, allegedly, launches nuclear missiles in response to a “Western attack” even if all the top military commanders have been killed and the capital incinerated. Essentially, it’s a dead man’s switch that deploys the nation’s nuclear arsenal against Western targets (the US, presumably) if those in charge are taken out.
Regardless of how serious Medvedev was or whether that old Soviet holdover still functions, that’s the kind of talk the US takes very seriously. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Russia has more nukes than any other nation in the world – over 5,500 warheads. The US falls slightly below that at 5,044. Together, the two superpowers represent about 90% of the world’s nuclear capability. Back in 2019, ICAN estimated that, should the US and Russia start flinging nukes at each other, 34.1 million people could die, and another 57.4 million could be injured, just in the first few hours of the war.
President Trump announced via Truth Social the repositioning of two nuclear subs “in the appropriate regions” in response to the “highly provocative statements.” Russia’s response? They effectively blew it off – or, at least, they made a good show of it.
“The number of Russian nuclear submarines in the world’s oceans is significantly higher than the American ones, and the subs that US President Donald Trump ordered to be redirected to the appropriate regions have long been under their control,” Viktor Vodolatsky, a senior Russian lawmaker, said. “So no response from the Russian Federation to the American leader’s statement about the submarines is required. Let the two US subs sail, they have been in the crosshairs for a long time now.”
All Bark or Plenty of Bite?
We’ve seen saber rattling before, and just because the president repositioned military assets doesn’t mean they’ll be used. So long as the conflict remains one of words, it can – well, remain as words. Vodolatsky may have been careful to sound nonchalant – perhaps even cavalier – about the subs, but he also added that the US and Russia must reach a “fundamental agreement” so that “the whole world calms down and stops talking about World War III.” And Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that a direct military confrontation must not occur.
Global Affairs Editor-in-Chief Fyodor Lukyanov suggested that Trump’s submarine remarks should not be taken seriously. “Trump, as we know, runs his own channel and reacts, so to speak, emotionally, humanly and spontaneously,” he told RBC TV. “I think that the armed forces, the naval forces of the United States read this with great surprise. If this exchange of opinions continues, and Trump continues to be drawn into it, then, one way or another, he will probably have to take some action. In my opinion, so far this is only at the level of words.”
Should Trump be taken seriously? The president doesn’t want a war between Russia and the US – nuclear or otherwise – and likely neither do Putin, Vodolatsky, or Medvedev. But none of them wants to be the first to back down before their opponents, either.
