Presidential candidate Kamala Harris has been gaining on former President Donald Trump in the polls, even in the swing states. But does that paint the entire political landscape? Recent reports show that some states are gaining more Republican voters than Democrats.
Pennsylvania Sees Uptick in New Registered Republican Voters
With 19 electoral votes, the highest in the battleground states, the Pennsylvania is a very coveted territory to secure votes. As Breitbart explained, just last week, Republicans gained 1,926 registered voters in the Keystone State. Since July, the party has seen 5,769, and from January 3 to last week, the total increase was 82,858. “Republicans have seen a net gain of 333,592 registered voters. While Democrats still have an advantage of more than 352,200 registered voters, Republicans have about two months to close that gap.”
While Democrats may currently have more registered voters, they’ve been on a downward trend and have lost 327,823 more voters than Republicans between November 2020 and August 12, 2024, in Pennsylvania alone. The GOP has been closing the registration gap in other states, as well, including California, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and West Virginia.New Jersey, for example, has added 152,918 Republican voters since November 2020 while the Democrats lost 2,537. In North Carolina, the red tide grew by 36,422 registered voters while the Dems lost 221,437. And in New York, Democrats lost 221,437 while the GOP increased by 36,422. Overall, “Republicans have gained over 393,000 registered voters across the states listed, while Democrats have lost over 3.5 million since November 2020, mere months before Biden and Harris took over,” Breitbart reported.
Changes in Arizona
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, has 1.39 million registered Republican voters, 1.29 million Democrats, and 1.3 million not registered with either party. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between Aug. 8 -15 found Harris had about a five-point lead over Trump in the state (50% to 45%). A survey by Noble Predictive Insights gathered information between Aug. 12-16 and reported that Trump was leading Harris by three points (47% to 44%). Polling from FiveThirtyEight’s data suggest the presidential race is nearly tied with the vice president holding just an 0.8-lead over Trump, while RealClearPolitics shows Harris with a 0.6-point benefit. The only thing that is clear with these polls is that no one really knows anything yet.
However, the party people are aligning themselves with is showing a trend. Maricopa County, Arizona –home to the state’s largest city, Phoenix – backed Biden in 2020. New data, however, shows the tides may be changing. July 30 information found that 692,294 voters in the county identified as Democrats, 851,227 as Republicans, and more than 800,000 did not choose a party or registered as independents. In August 2020, Democrats had 765,774 registered voters while the GOP had 848,313, demonstrating that, over just four years, 72,480 Democrats switch away from their party while the Republicans saw a gain of 1,914. Independent voters can be a game changer and may end up being the deciding factor for this year’s election.
As the presidential election draws near, the political landscape continues to shift. Polls underscore and don’t always paint an accurate portrait of the uncertainty for both parties. Harris may be gaining ground according to studies, but Republicans are gaining registered voters. Independent voters make predictions even more complicated, and is further proof that every vote will count.
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