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Democrats in Virginia – and, indeed, nationwide – had high hopes for the state’s role in the current redistricting war engulfing the country. But the US Supreme Court ended those dreams of electoral glory. On Friday, May 15, the Court rejected an emergency request in a brief, unsigned order, leaving Old Dominion Democrats sitting on the sidelines – and not a single liberal justice publicly dissented.
Virginia on the Sidelines
During an April 21 referendum, Virginians voted 51.7% to 48.3% in favor of amending the state constitution to allow a new congressional map that would likely flip as many as four red US House seats blue. In a tit-for-tat redistricting war spreading across the nation, it seemed like a win for Democrats, keeping them in the game at least, even if not quite putting them ahead.
Then came May 8 and the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling that the vote itself had violated the state’s constitution. Virginia Democrats did the only thing left for them to do other than give up: They appealed to the US Supreme Court for an emergency ruling to block their own high court’s decision. With a conservative majority that just ruled against Democrats in Louisiana v. Callais, it was a long shot – a Hail Mary pass, if you will – but it was their only chance at not losing the war.
But lose they did.
In a brief, unsigned order, the federal justices refused to take up the case. In their emergency appeal, state Democrats said the Virginia court ruling had “deprived voters, candidates and the Commonwealth of their right to lawfully enact congressional districts.” After the Supreme Court’s denial, Governor Abigail Spanberger spoke out against the Court and did her best to mitigate the damage. “The Supreme Court of the United States has now joined the Supreme Court of Virginia in choosing to nullify an election and the votes of more than three million Virginians,” she wrote on X. “These Virginians made their voices heard – casting their ballots in good faith to push back against a President who said he’s ‘entitled’ to more seats in Congress before voters go to the polls.”
Of course, Gov. Spanberger’s remarks are technically correct, but they spin the situation in a far more favorable light for her own party than reality supports. In the April 21 referendum, 3,101,483 Virginians voted in total – but only 1,602,705 voted in favor of the amendment. So, while the two courts did invalidate a 51.7% majority, they actually affirmed the opinion of almost as many, the 1,498,788 who voted against it.
Still, she is right to point out that a majority of voters supported the amendment and the new map. But the Virginia Supreme Court determined that the redistricting referendum was unconstitutional because it was initiated while early voting was already underway. And the US Supreme Court didn’t disagree.
Redistricting Across the Nation
So now Virginia Democrats, who not so long ago saw themselves as a shield against Republican redistricting efforts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, have effectively been sidelined. While they still hold the majority in their state’s US House delegation, they’re powerless to prevent their side from losing the war at the national level.
And make no mistake, Democrats are presently losing that war.
After the Census Bureau revealed that the 2020 census was likely skewed by “significant errors,” President Donald Trump put out the call to GOP-controlled states to draw up new maps using the corrected information. Texas was the first to answer the call, drafting and passing a new map aimed at giving Republicans as many as five more seats in the US House.
And like that, the fight was on. California passed a new map to flip as many as five red seats blue, effectively nullifying the Texas redistricting. Florida jumped in, passing a new map to gain four Republican seats. Virginia’s new map might have canceled that out, but the courts had other ideas. Several other states have passed new maps, and several more very well might.
New maps in Missouri, North Carolina, and Tennessee seem set to add one red seat each, while Ohio’s might add two. Utah’s new map could give Democrats one or two more. After the Callais ruling, Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and South Carolina all seemed set to do the same, though the latter three on that list have decided to hold off until at least the 2028 elections. Democrats in Maryland are also discussing the possibility of a new map ahead of the 2026 elections, potentially adding yet another seat to their side.
As it sits right now, Republicans seem likely to pick up anywhere from 11 to 14 seats in red states, while Democrats may flip six or seven. Virginia’s potential four would have come close to balancing the scales, resulting in a net change of just one to five seats flipped red for all this effort and change nationwide. But without them, a sweeping Republican victory seems a foregone conclusion in this historic mid-decade redistricting war. How voters in each state will actually react at the polls come November, however, is another thing entirely.
