It has been four years since the GOP had a majority in the Senate, but this year, for Republicans, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. The majority of polls show all the most crucial Senate races as either toss-ups or slightly tilting unless they're strongly Democratic – with a couple of possibly highly significant exceptions. How accurate are these polls? That's the question. Accurate or not, though, Senate Democrats will almost certainly not add to their current total. Republicans, however, have reason to feel optimistic that they can flip one or maybe two seats in their direction.
Is Michigan really in play as far as Senate races go this year? Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, will be vacating her seat, providing an opening for the GOP's Mike Rogers, a former Michigan representative. Then again, it has been 30 years since the Great Lakes State sent a Republican to the US Senate.
In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin, another Democrat, has seen her significant lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde dwindle to a razor-thin advantage even though the Democratic Party has massively outspent the Republicans in this race so far.
Many Democrats continue to harbor what seem like fanciful dreams of defeating Texas Republican Ted Cruz and magically flipping the Lone Star State to blue. Meanwhile, in Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown – once a shining star of the Democratic Party – is fighting hard to keep hold of his seat against Republican Bernie Moreno. The smart money would probably be on Brown prevailing by an unimpressive margin, but, as things stand now, that race is practically a toss-up.
Pennsylvania is known as the Keystone State, and in the context of federal elections, that nickname has become very appropriate. Democrat Bob Casey, a three-term senator, is defending his seat against Republican David McCormick. As is the case with Sherrod Brown in Ohio, a Republican win would signal a shift in the political winds likely to take a lot of people by surprise. The fact that Brown does not already look like a comfortable winner in his race indicates that what were once Democratic strongholds are now neither strong nor holding. Most political analysts would likely predict Casey will hold on to his seat, but if he doesn't, that would be a sign that the “blue wall,” already once punctured by Donald Trump, is looking a little shaky.
In terms of Senate races, however, the most obvious path of Republican victory winds from West Virginia to Montana. Sen. Joe Manchin, who became increasingly disaffected by the Democratic Party’s policies, is not seeking re-election. The GOP is heavily favored to pick up this seat. Republicans also seem well-positioned to take Jon Tester’s seat in Montana. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll had Republican challenger Tim Sheehy eight points ahead of the Democratic senator.
Since Joe Biden has decided not to run for a second term – or since he was pushed out by his party, depending on what one chooses to believe – January 2025 will see the installation of a new president, Republican or Democrat. Winning a Senate majority, then, would be enormously consequential to both main parties, regardless of who is handed the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. next year.
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