US foreign policy watchers put a lot of stock in who would be first on Secretary of State Marco Rubio's dance card. However, it's no surprise Rubio would look to the south for his first outreach. Now that the United States has adopted a strong stance against the flow of illegal aliens coming through Central America and Mexico, Foggy Bottom is focusing attention there. Especially on Panama. President Donald Trump has made no secret he is dissatisfied with China managing the most important waterway in the Western Hemisphere.
First Diplomatic Trip for Rubio
After receiving a unanimous confirmation vote in the US Senate, Rubio took Trump's unambiguous message to Panama on Sunday (Feb. 2). To foreshadow his meeting with the country’s President José Raúl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha, Rubio wrote an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal heralding a new and more pinpointed foreign policy that attends to "our own neighborhood – the Western Hemisphere." He made unmistakable his concern that malicious forces have been at work in the region over the past four years: "Illegitimate regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are intentionally amplifying the chaos." He pointed out a main sticking point for the Trump administration, explaining, "All the while, the Chinese Communist Party uses diplomatic and economic leverage — such as at the Panama Canal — to oppose the U.S. and turn sovereign nations into vassal states."
There is more significance to Rubio's choice of a first diplomatic trip, which includes as well El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. As the Trump administration's special envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, said in a State Department press briefing, this trip will be the first time a US secretary of state made his or her first official diplomatic visit to Latin America in more than a hundred years, the last time being 1912, “when Philander Chase Knox went to Panama … to oversee the conclusion of the Panama Canal's construction."
Adding to the significance of Rubio's first stop in Panama, of course, was that the central topic of talks was Trump's abiding dissatisfaction with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) management of the canal. The State Department's take on the meeting was notably not weasel-worded diplo-speak:
"Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and Minister Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the Canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty."
After the meeting, Rubio thanked Mulino for reducing the number of illegal aliens transiting Panama and emphasized the US "dedication to making both nations safer, stronger, and more prosperous." Straight talk works. "Panama's president vowed Sunday to end a key development deal with China after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and after complaints from President Donald Trump that the Latin American country had ceded control over its critical shipping canal to Beijing," Fox News reported shortly after the bilateral discussions ended.
Panama will no longer be part of the Beijing Belt and Road hegemonic scheme it agreed to in 2017. For the long term, Mulino's decision not to renew the memorandum of agreement with Beijing is a major shift in geopolitical alignment for the Central American country. Additionally, the Associated Press reported, "Despite Mulino's rejection of any negotiation over ownership, some believe Panama may be open to a compromise under which canal operations on both sides are taken away from the Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports company."
National Security Threat
From a national security perspective, having a CCP state business controlling the two portals of the Panama Canal – on the Atlantic side at Colón and on the Pacific at the Bay of Panama -- is perilous. Trump was clear in talking with reporters recently, "I can say this: we need them for economic security. The Panama Canal was built for our military," according to RealClear Politics.
The United States is the largest user of the crucial waterway. Estimates are that more than 70% of the Panama Canal traffic is destined there, and nearly 40% of all US container ship traffic moves through the canal, amounting to roughly $270 billion in goods. Furthermore, the waterway is critical for US Navy vessels transiting between the Atlantic and Pacific. A typical example is this US Virginia Class submarine, as seen in this rare YouTube video.
US submarines would be a vital strategic asset in a conflict with the People's Liberation Army in the South China Sea and the Straits of Taiwan. Redeploying Atlantic Fleet attack submarines to the Pacific in a contingency would depend on the Panama Canal being available, which could be stymied by the CCP controlling entrance and exit. Shipping times for logistics transportation of weapons and ammunition to the Indo-Pacific in a conflict could be doubled. Trump is right to task Rubio with ensuring that this waterway remains unimpeded.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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