Political unrest continues in Venezuela after a disputed election on July 28. Authoritarian incumbent leader Nicolas Maduro claims victory, while opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez says he won with 66% of the vote. Gonzalez, who was up by 25 to 30 points in most polls throughout July prior to the election, is now recognized by the United States as the winner. Taking a brief look at the latest reactions shows a widening geopolitical gulf over the issue of Venezuela’s future.
Maduro Responds With Fury
For his part, Maduro insists that he secured victory 51% to 44% over Gonzalez. He says the election was hacked and that false numbers were produced to try to rob him of re-election and lead a “plot” to oust him from power. Responding to the US's recognition of Gonzalez, Maduro demanded that Washington “keep its nose out of Venezuela!”
Reports detail at least 15 protesters killed so far by Venezuelan authorities, as well as dozens of injuries and over 1,000 arrests. Maduro threatened a “bloodbath” if the election didn’t result in his victory. Considering the president has control over the country’s military, police, and most of its gangs, he has the power to crack down severely on those who protest his version of the election results.
So far, Maduro's only concession was agreeing to an audit of the election by Venezuela’s supreme court in which he promised to reveal the vote tallies to prove his victory. But the incumbent’s government maintains a tight reign on the country’s judicial system, making this act largely a propaganda maneuver. Meanwhile, the opposition coalition claims it has voting records to demonstrate Gonzalez is the real victor.
Venezuela Violence and Election Irregularities Decried
Numerous European nations have decried the lack of transparency in the recent Venezuelan election. And the US Secretary of State officially backed Gonzalez as the election's winner on Thursday, saying “overwhelming evidence” makes it “clear” Gonzalez is the rightful victor.
Responding to the crisis, Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Congressman Joaquin Castro (D-TX) recently issued a statement demanding that Maduro respect the will of voters.
“Venezuelans have a right to make their voices heard and to decide their own future. The Maduro regime and the military must respect the will of voters and the electoral process.”
In addition, leftist-led governments in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia have tried to convince the president to release evidence voluntarily to evince his win and quiet the suspicions raised against the election results. Regardless, Maduro’s allies have kept their concerns about Venezuela’s problems quite muted.
Downplaying Election Concerns
China, which recognizes Maduro’s victory in the July 28 election, will likely be a first stop again for the contested leader to boost himself on the international stage if he manages to keep control of the country. Beijing has helped him stay in power despite the various protests against his government and outcries from the international community over fraudulent elections.
Brazil’s leftist President, Luiz da Silva (“Lula”), has said he will “acknowledge” the results of the election. He claimed that the “dispute” over them is “normal” and can be settled straightforwardly by Maduro presenting the vote tallies. Lula has not weighed in on whether confirmation of votes from Venezuela’s supreme court would be sufficient proof for Brazil. Mexico’s President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has taken a similar position while scolding the US for trying to get involved in Venezuela’s internal affairs. Meanwhile, Colombia’s left-wing leader, Gustavo Petro, has urged Maduro to release a “transparent” record of the total votes.
Given Maduro’s reputation and his threats before the election, of course, trust for the current regime is a tall order. Then again, what the rest of the world thinks of Venezuela likely won’t matter. The real struggle is taking place inside the socialist country, and it may come down once again to might makes right, as so often it does.
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