Amid negotiations to resurrect the flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a last minute demand from Russia provided the world a reprieve from another lousy agreement. Acting as a facilitator nation between the US and Iran, Russia is mired in the talks between the two countries to both bring about another deal on hampering Iran’s nuclear ambitions and also facilitate a favorable oil contract for the United States. In a startling move, Team Russia added an 11th-hour ultimatum that said all sanctions imposed upon it for invading Ukraine could not be part of the conditions of a Tehran deal. Consequently, a redux of the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is stalled.
The international discussions, including Russian and Chinese envoys, are attempting to breathe life into the agreement from which former President Trump removed the US. After nearly two years of on-again off-again, indirect talks with Iran, the White House signaled a final deal was all but assured. But then Moscow tossed the proverbial dung in the punch bowl.
Putin does not want to be accountable for his actions against Kyiv and its people. Therefore, it appears the Russian strongman intends to avoid the current financial penalties by demanding immunity from sanctions on trade with Iran in the future. In the indirect talks, “Russia, which is serving as a negotiator on behalf of Iran, brought talks to a standstill this week by tying the outcome of the talks to sanctions Moscow is facing in response to its efforts to overtake Ukraine,” the Washington Examiner reported.
There is nothing mysterious about the move by Russia. Putin anticipates the sanctions levied on him by the West will be economically crippling for Moscow. So, he’s looking for a hedge to lessen the impact. Businesses are pulling out of Russia right and left. Fast food and beverage stores like McDonald’s and Starbucks have left.
Moscow’s citizens are going to be the ones feeling the pinch. Additionally, the jaws of the trade constraints on the Kremlin’s international business are beginning to bite into an economy at best not much bigger than that of Texas. With more countries refusing to buy Moscow’s goods, especially oil, Russia is scrambling for relief.
Vladimir Putin (Photo by Sergei Bobylev\TASS via Getty Images)
To that end, the Kremlin insists on “written guarantees” the current sanctions on Russia will “not in any way damage our right to free and full trade, economic and investment cooperation, and military-technical cooperation, with the Islamic State,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced Saturday, March 5, according to Foreign Policy. And what better stage on which to play that card than the Iran nuclear talks? The Biden administration is desperate for an agreement. Iran wants the sanctions on it lifted. Additionally, reports reveal China’s envoy to the Vienna negotiations, Wang Qun, expressed dismay at the Russian gambit halting talks. So, if ever there was a geopolitical perversity in the making, it’s Iran, China, and the US on the same side pushing for a bargain no better than the failed 2015 nuclear pact.
Without Iran agreeing to cease long-range missile development and stop funding terrorism, in addition to halting its nuclear weapons development, the world is right back where it was when the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. There is no evidence these most critical near-term conditions vital to peace among Iran’s neighbors and the Middle East region are covered under the new nuclear accord. To add to the issue, consider that the US is dealing with Russia as a surrogate for Iran, during Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the US and its NATO allies are supporting Kyiv with arms to, well… kill Russians. Unquestionably, there are myriad national security moving parts that have the potential to be global-power-altering. What is very troubling is that the Biden White House is not out ahead of this foreign policy mess.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.
~ Read more from Dave Patterson.
