The Candidates’ Market Report
Although Joe Biden continues to rack up wins in head-to-head polls, other evidence suggests that all may not be wine and roses for the Democrat candidate’s campaign.
Recent surveys by Rasmussen show that 50% of voters think the media will try to help Biden win on November 3; just 5% think the press will be helping out President Trump. A surprising number, 35%, believe the Fourth Estate will be unbiased in its coverage.
The latest Rasmussen polling gives Trump an approval rating of 48%, which mirrors exactly where Barack Obama was placed coming to the end of his first term. In fact, Trump’s approval over the last year pretty much matches the former president’s.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 48% ( + 3% )
- Congress – 17% ( – 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/33
- Hillary Clinton – 12/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 50/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 66/1
- Kamala Harris – 100/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 100/1
Joe Biden is still the firm favorite to be the eventual Democrat nominee, and with less than a month to go before the convention, it would take a monumental event to topple him from the top spot. However, with more than 20% of registered Democratic Party voters believing he suffers from serious cognitive decline, a sizeable chunk of Dem voters who believe the Tara Reade accusations, and Biden’s stance on defunding the police – which is the complete opposite of most Americans’ – it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he won’t be the candidate come election day.
If his poll numbers remain better than Donald Trump’s, it seems the DNC will be willing to install Uncle Joe in the White House and damn the consequences. This means his choice of VP has just become one of the most important questions in U.S. politics.
Kamala Harris is in the lead for the number two spot, closely followed by Susan Rice. It appears that Biden (or his campaign team) is taking a leaf from The Donald’s book by trying to create a feeling of suspense that you might see in a reality TV spectacular.
Biden’s Running Mate:
- Kamala Harris – Even
- Susan Rice – 13/5
- Tammy Duckworth – 6/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 12/1
- Val Demings – 12/1
- Keisha Lance Bottoms – 14/1
- Michelle Obama – 16/1
- Karen Bass – 16/1
- Stacey Abrams – 22/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
The odds of each party winning the following states:
- Florida: Democrats – 8/13; Republicans – 6/5
- Arizona: Democrats – 8/13; Republicans – 6/5
- Michigan: Democrats – 1/5; Republicans – 11/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 8/15; Republicans – 11/8
- Joe Biden – 8/15
- Donald Trump – 7/4
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Kanye West – 100/1
- Nikki Haley – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 150/1
- Bernie Sanders – 200/1
- Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson – 500/1
Joe Biden maintains a strong lead over President Trump. This lead, however, has narrowed considerably in recent weeks. From a previously unassailable position, it appears that the electoral pendulum is swinging back on itself. In ever-smaller arcs leading up to the actual election, Biden’s frontrunner status will likely be threatened but never reversed … until the voters hit the ballot boxes.
The majority of polls that give Biden the best chances are national, and therefore do not reflect the Electoral College.
At present, the media is portraying burning cities as a negative for Donald Trump, suggesting that he is a leader in crisis; the reality may be quite different. The cities most impacted are Democrat-run, and offers of federal help have been spurned with derision. How long will it be before voters start to suspect that elected politicians are letting their cities face the flames for electoral advantage?
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 251 – 269 = 12/1
- 270 – 275 = 16/1
- 276 – 280 = 16/1
- 281 – 290 = 14/1
- 291 – 300 = 14/1
- 301 – 315 = 8/1
- 316 – 330 = 8/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.