Political Horse Race: Trump Closes in on Biden

The Candidates' Market Report

Recent polling suggests that President Trump is closing the gap on Joe Biden. The latest survey by CNN, which ranged from Aug. 12 to 15 (so including the announcement of Kamala Harris as Biden's running mate), suggests the former vice president has just a four-point lead. In swing states, this is down to just 1%. The latest Rasmussen polling of Trump's approval reveals that the president's support base is as steady as ever. Whether he can turn this into votes on election day depends on how energized his fans are. Team Biden and the Democrats are hoping their mostly virtual national convention will generate enough enthusiasm to maintain the lead, but time will tell whether the Bernie Bros and the more progressive wing of the party are happy with the few sops that have so far been cast their way.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 47% ( - 1% )
• Congress - 18% ( + 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 5/4

Texas

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/6
• Republicans - 11/10

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/8
• Republicans - 9/2

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/9
• Democrats - 13/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 2/5
• Democrats - 7/4

Maine

• Democrats - 1/7
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 1/5
• Republicans - 3/1

North Carolina

• Democrats - 8/11
• Republicans - Even

Ohio

• Republicans - 4/6
• Democrats - 11/10

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 3/10
• Republicans - 11/5

Presidential Election:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

• 251 - 269 = 12/1
• 270 - 275 = 16/1
• 276 - 280 = 16/1
• 281 - 290 = 14/1
• 291 - 300 = 14/1
• 301 - 315 = 10/1
• 316 - 330 = 10/1
• 331 - 350 = 12/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.