Political Horse Race: Trump and Biden in Dead Heat

The Candidates' Market Report

The latest White House Watch from Rasmussen gives Joe Biden a single point lead over the president. After a spell in the wilderness of the polls and betting markets, it seems that the president may be back on track to win the November election. One of the most interesting features of this latest polling is that Trump is doing well with non-white voters; black support is hovering around 30% and "other" racial groups have the president tied with Biden at 41%. Polling for the all-important swing states is still largely with Joe Biden (six out of the 11 major swingers are still for the Democrats), but again, this is tightening, with North Carolina now favoring Donald Trump – a figure also reflected in the betting odds. As predicted in last week's Political Horse Race, President Trump and Joe Biden are now neck and neck in the betting markets (see below for more details).

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 46% ( - 1% )
• Congress - 20% ( + 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Democrats - 8/11
• Republicans - Even

Texas

• Republicans - 2/9
• Democrats - 11/4

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/5
• Republicans - 10/11

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/8
• Republicans - 9/2

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/9
• Democrats - 13/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Maine

• Democrats - 1/7
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 2/5
• Republicans - 7/4

North Carolina

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Ohio

• Republicans - 4/7
• Democrats - 5/4

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 8/15
• Republicans - 11/8

Presidential Election:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

• 251 - 269 = 4/1
• 270 - 275 = 5/1
• 276 - 280 = 5/1
• 281 - 290 = 11/2
• 291 - 300 = 6/1
• 301 - 315 = 13/2
• 316 - 330 = 7/1
• 331 - 350 = 17/2

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.