The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump’s approval rating has been edging up all week, finishing at 53%, a high point not seen so far this year. With the passing of Supreme Court Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the election odds are going into a tailspin. Who sits on the highest court in the land is regarded by many voters as more important than who occupies the White House, and both parties have capitalized on this with fundraising efforts. At present, Joe Biden seems to be outraising Trump, but he is also spending a lot more than the president, which could leave him short in the crucial last weeks before election day.
It looks like the president is all set to nominate his third justice to SCOTUS, much to the chagrin of Democrats. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has indicated that he is ready to start proceedings and begin the nomination process. The odds-on favorite (should the process go ahead) is Amy Coney Barrett – a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit – closely followed by Barbara Lagoa. The latter is Cuban-American and hails from the all-important swing state Florida. Both are seen as steady conservatives and will face little opposition from Senate Republicans.
Polling indicates that the majority don’t want President Trump to go ahead with the nomination, however something very strange is happening with pollsters in general – see below.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 53% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
Senate Map:
When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here’s a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:
- Republicans: 47
- Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 46
- Toss Up: 7
The states that are a toss-up include Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Montana, and North Carolina.
Of these, the latest polling indicates that Republicans will win four and Democrats will win three, giving a 51/49 split in favor of the GOP.
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.
Florida
- Republicans – 5/6
- Democrats – 5/6
Texas
- Republicans – 1/4
- Democrats – 11/4
Arizona
- Democrats – 4/9
- Republicans – 13/8
Colorado
- Democrats – 1/18
- Republicans – 7/1
Georgia
- Republicans – 3/10
- Democrats – 9/4
Iowa
- Republicans – 4/11
- Democrats – 15/8
Maine
- Democrats – 1/7
- Republicans – 4/1
Michigan
- Democrats – 2/9
- Republicans – 11/4
North Carolina
- Republicans – 4/5
- Democrats – 10/11
Ohio
- Republicans – 4/9
- Democrats – 13/8
Pennsylvania
- Democrats – 8/15
- Republicans – 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden – 4/5
- Donald Trump – 11/10
- Kamala Harris – 80/1
- Hillary Clinton – 250/1
- Mike Pence – 250/1
- Michelle Obama – 300/1
- Kanye West – 500/1
- Bernie Sanders – no odds under 500/1
Can polling data be trusted? That is the question many are asking themselves. In 2016, the majority of pollsters got the wrong answer, and even some of those who got it right did so for the wrong reasons. So what has changed this year?
It appears that poll after poll shows Biden with a handy lead of (average) 6.5%, which is a more solid position than even Hillary Clinton once had. Yet it seems that pollsters may be trying to sway opinion rather than present it. Numerous polls are being released that purport to be national surveys yet sample less than 1,000 people, and some with enormous margins of error up to 4.3%. Added to this mess is how many of the polls are weighted.
In the 2016 general election, exit polls showed party affiliation for Republicans at 33%. Why then do most polls only factor in Republican voters at around 24%? This is vastly underestimating the amount of GOP backers in the country and naturally leads to results swaying toward Joe Biden. If polls were carried out with more accuracy, is it possible that everything would point to a Trump landslide?
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 270 – 299 = 5/1
- 300 – 329 = 5/1
- 210 – 239 = 11/2
- 180 – 209 = 6/1
- 240 – 269 = 6/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
