Political Horse Race: The Latest Odds on Super Tuesday

The Candidates' Market Report

President Trump has had a roller-coaster week. From hitting a job approval rating of 52% earlier in the week (a high not seen since September last year) falling to a fairly poor 46%, the coronavirus and its impact on the stock market has taken its toll on the president's standing. But it's not all bad news for Trump. Of the 13 states that hold a Republican primary on Super Tuesday, Trump will likely sweep them all without any hitch. Just a few locations have a challenge from Bill Weld who will be lucky to muster over 6%. It's all to play for in the Democrat primaries, especially now that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have withdrawn from the race and endorsed Joe Biden. The odds of a Biden success in the primary have shot through the roof, ousting Bernie Sanders from his top spot. Even Beto O'Rourke has been rolled out to support the former VP, with Biden saying that Beto will be his point man on gun control.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 46% ( - 3% )
• Congress - 17% ( - 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Joe Biden - EVS
• Bernie Sanders - 5/4
• Michael Bloomberg - 10/1
• Hillary Clinton - 25/1
• Elizabeth Warren - 40/1
• Michelle Obama - 100/1
• Tulsi Gabbard - 200/1

The best thing to happen to Joe Biden in this primary race so far is the suspension of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns, and it couldn't have come at a better time. On the cusp of Super Tuesday, moderate Democrats with no love for the progressive wing of the party now only have one real choice available... and it's reflected in the numbers. Biden leapfrogs Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders back into a first-place position that he has been watching wistfully for a very long time, and Bloomberg slips from his high perch (or box). In the last 24 hours, the betting markets have taken Biden from an also-ran to the firm favorite, something that is also being reflected in the polls. Elizabeth Warren has not moved a single point either way, remaining as a longshot to win the nomination on 40/1. Hillary Clinton is still lurking in the background on 25/1, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to step in as the compromise candidate if this race makes it all the way to Milwaukee without a clear leader.

Primary Races

Head over to Liberty Nation's Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls. Candidate to win the most Super Tuesday primary delegates:

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Complete first term - 1/18
• Trump and Putin to receive joint Nobel Peace Prize - 50/1
• Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the U.N. - 7/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.