The Candidates' Market Report
Have Republican voters been under-represented in the swath of polls that give Joe Biden a substantial lead ranging from seven to ten points? Comms director for the Trump campaign, Tim Murtaugh, seems to think so. Referencing recent polling that uses just 24% Republican voters, he said, “Twenty-four percent — less than a quarter of the country. That compares to Republican turnout according to exit polls in both 2016 and 2018 of 33 percent, so they’re under-sampling Republicans by 9 points in that poll.” According to CNN exit polling in 2016, Republicans were 33% of the vote, exactly the same as in the 2018 midterms. Why would supposedly reputable polling outfits under-sample GOP supporters by 9%? Rasmussen, on the other hand, uses the exit poll data for 2018 to get their sample group. Their latest polling gives Biden just a 2% edge.This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump - 49% ( + 1% )
- Congress - 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden - 1/33
- Hillary Clinton - 12/1
- Michelle Obama - 33/1
- Bernie Sanders - 50/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 66/1
- Kamala Harris - 100/1
- Elizabeth Warren - 100/1
- Kamala Harris - Even
- Susan Rice - 13/5
- Tammy Duckworth - 6/1
- Karen Bass - 6/1
- Elizabeth Warren - 12/1
- Val Demings - 12/1
- Keisha Lance Bottoms - 14/1
- Michelle Obama - 16/1
- Stacey Abrams - 22/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation's Tim Donner puts it:"Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin - he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in '16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling - both swing states Trump lost in '16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now."The odds of each party winning the following states:
- Florida: Democrats - 4/7; Republicans - 5/4
- Arizona: Democrats - 8/13; Republicans - 6/5
- Michigan: Democrats - 1/5; Republicans - 11/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats - 3/10; Republicans - 11/5
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden - 8/15
- Donald Trump - 7/4
- Hillary Clinton - 50/1
- Mike Pence - 75/1
- Nikki Haley - 100/1
- Michelle Obama - 100/1
- Kanye West - 150/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 200/1
- Bernie Sanders - 200/1
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson - 500/1
- Mainly because I like Joe Biden . . . 27%
- Mainly because Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee . . . 23%
- Mainly to oppose Donald Trump . . . 50%
- Mainly because I like Donald Trump . . . 68%
- Mainly because Donald Trump is the Republican nominee . . . 15%
- Mainly to oppose Joe Biden . . . 17%
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
- 251 - 269 = 12/1
- 270 - 275 = 16/1
- 276 - 280 = 16/1
- 281 - 290 = 14/1
- 291 - 300 = 14/1
- 301 - 315 = 8/1
- 316 - 330 = 7/1
- 331 - 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
~ Read more from Mark Angelides.








