Political Horse Race: Pollsters in a Panic

The Candidates' Market Report

Are polling companies trying to hide data on the likely results of the upcoming election? Certainly, the news media have learned a lesson and now provide scaffolding in their reportage, suggesting that Joe Biden's healthy lead is not a deja vu moment of 2016 and that Team Biden figures are much more solid than those for the former queen apparent. Why then are pollsters burying their information and reporters not digging deeper? In 2016, pretty much every poll published its crosstabs (the area where you can see the breakdown of who answered the survey and their affiliations), and this allowed interested parties to plot their own predictions based on the raw data. Each poll would state precisely how it weighted the number of Republican, Democrat, and Independent voters. Not any more. Several months ago, Liberty Nation pointed out that over-sampling of Democrats and under-sampling of Republicans based on the 2016 election exit poll and the 2018 midterms skewed data by as much as 9%. Since then, a plethora of pollsters has simply stopped providing this information on a front-page basis. This is not to say that the information is hidden from view, just that it is less easy to find. Of those that do still publish the party affiliation data, we can see that the trend of over- and under-sampling continues. Take, for example, the CNBC/Change Research poll. This survey gives Joe Biden a 10-point lead over Donald Trump (52% to 42%). Worrying figures indeed for Trump supporters. But according to the raw data, the poll samples 44% who voted for Clinton in 2016, compared to 40% who voted for Trump. Digging deeper into the "7 Part Party ID," it has weighted for a combined 50% of those who (to any measure) identify as Democrat, compared with 40% who (to any measure) identify as Republican. These figures do not reflect the 2016 election or 2018 midterm exit polls. Some serious game-playing is afoot.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 52% ( + 4% )
• Congress - 14% ( - 1% )

Senate Map:

The shape of the 2021 Senate is arguably more important than who wins the presidency in November. Without a Senate majority, the president will be unable to pass major legislation (other than via executive order), which will seriously impact the effectiveness of the administration. This year, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, and as such, the Senate GOP is pushing hard for a solid win. RealClearPolitics has the likely breakdown as follows:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 45
• Toss-Up: 9

Although there are nine toss-up states, polling indicates that six are likely to go to the GOP. The three leaning to the Democrats are Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to presidential power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Texas

• Republicans - 3/10
• Democrats - 11/5

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 5/4

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/33
• Republicans - 9/1

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/6
• Democrats - 11/10

Iowa

• Republicans - 1/2
• Democrats - 6/4

Maine

• Democrats - 1/14
• Republicans - 11/2

Michigan

• Democrats - 2/7
• Republicans - 5/2

North Carolina

• Democrats - 8/11
• Republicans - Even

Ohio

• Republicans - 1/2
• Democrats - 6/4

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 2/5
• Republicans - 15/8

Presidential Election:

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.