The Candidates’ Market Report
With the markets taking a major hit on Monday, President Trump appears to be holding ground on his job approval rating. A tough week that saw the media desperate to hype the coronavirus situation and an almost gleeful rubbing of hands as investors take hit after hit, has pushed Joe Biden up in the polls. The latest Rasmussen Report states that if the election were held today, Biden would get 48% support compared to Trump’s 42%.
The Democratic Party is in the process of drawing dividing lines in terms of who to support in the primary. Bernie Sanders is under the impression that the political machinery is working against him and his campaign, while Biden seems to be lapping up one powerful endorsement after another. On Bernie’s side, he has The Squad as his main cheerleaders, a scenario that could see the newcomers spend their political capital without a solid return.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 3% )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/10
- Bernie Sanders – 8/1
- Hillary Clinton – 22/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 250/1
With Super Tuesday providing some clarity in the Democrat primary, the field of candidates has officially collapsed, leaving just five names with any betting action at all – only three of whom are even running. Joe Biden is well on track to win after his orchestrated resurgence, leaving Sanders struggling on a poor 8/1; a situation only a big win in Michigan can hope to rectify. With 125 pledged delegates available, this is the big haul state that could either secure Biden’s victory or drag Bernie back into the race … possibly all the way to Milwaukee.
One of the most interesting shifts this week is that Michelle Obama’s chances of getting the nomination have risen from a 100/1 to 50/1, suggesting a significant number of cash bettors suspect this will end in a brokered convention in which the two lead candidates are so damaged by the campaign that the DNC feel there is no route to victory for either man. But Mrs. Obama will have to stand in line behind Hillary Clinton who clawed back three points.
Primary Races
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
Mississippi Primary
- Joe Biden – 1/100
- Bernie Sanders – 14/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Missouri Primary
- Joe Biden – 1/25
- Bernie Sanders – 7/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
North Dakota Caucus
- Joe Biden – 4/9
- Bernie Sanders – 13/8
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Michigan Primary
- Joe Biden – 1/16
- Bernie Sanders – 11/2
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Washington State Primary
- Bernie Sanders – 8/11
- Joe Biden – 10/11
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Idaho Primary
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Bernie Sanders – EVS
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 4/5
- Joe Biden – 5/4
- Bernie Sanders – 14/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Michelle Obama – 200/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 300/1
The race for the White House is starting to heat up. Joe Biden’s strong showing on Super Tuesday has brought with it a lot of positive press; good press equals good polling. While President Trump still has a solid lead, we can expect to see the two men closing in on each other as the fallout from the market situation begins to bite. Bernie Sanders is very much looking like the outside man, dropping from a respectable 4/1 to a desultory 14/1; those 125 Michigan delegates are a last-chance saloon for the Vermont socialist.
Tulsi Gabbard has been sidelined by the bettors, the pollsters, and most surprisingly, her own party. Despite lamenting that the race has come down to three old white men, the DNC decided to change their own debate rules to exclude a young woman of color from taking the stage.
Donald Trump:
- Complete first term – 1/18
- Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term in office – 2/1
- Trump to ban gay adoption – 7/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
