The Candidates’ Market Report

All the news is related to COVID-19 this week, and politicians of every stripe are feeling the backlash. From President Trump being dragged through the mud over his response time, his method of dealing with the crisis, and his funding plans, to Nancy Pelosi being accused of trying to stuff federal abortion funding into the Coronavirus spending package, no one can escape the political ramifications. This includes the few remaining candidates for the Democratic Party nominee.

President Trump’s approval rating is at 47%, down from 52% just a couple of weeks ago. As the November election draws nearer, each point is crucial for the president and much will depend on how long the national emergency lasts.

In the Sunday night debate, Joe Biden’s poor grasp of the details surrounding COVID-19, including mistaking it for another pandemic, may have done him harm heading into the next round of primaries; possibly giving Bernie Sanders one last chance to stay in the race. But make no mistake, without an electoral miracle, the show is likely over for the Vermont senator.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump – 47% ( + 1% )
• Congress – 16% ( – 2% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Joe Biden –  1/25
• Hillary Clinton –  14/1
• Bernie Sanders –  22/1
• Michelle Obama – 50/1
• Tulsi Gabbard – 150/1

With four states holding their primaries on March 17, Joe Biden looks set to secure his place as the nominee. His odds have jumped from 1/10 to 1/25 making it all but a sure thing in betting terms. Bernie Sanders, once the favorite, has dropped to the third position behind Hillary Clinton – who isn’t even running. Over 500 delegates are up for grabs and both the betting odds and the polls show the lion’s share will be heading toward Biden. This may be enough to convince Sanders to fold up his campaign.

But what of Hillary Clinton’s 11th-hour surge? Conspiracy theories abound, suggesting that while she couldn’t beat Bernie in the primary (largely due to bad blood in 2016 and her historic loss to Donald Trump), she may still be a more viable candidate than Biden. As the campaign season moves on, Biden’s behavior, arguments, and general forgetfulness could prove to be too much of a liability for his party. Will Clinton be granted one last shot at the prize? the betting odds give it a 14 to one chance.

Primary Races

Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.

Arizona Primary

Presidential Election:

• Complete first term – 1/18
• Will France ask for the Statue of Liberty back? – 100/1
• Trump to dye his hair red, white and blue – 200/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

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Read more from Mark Angelides.