The Candidates’ Market Report
Surely this should have been the week that President Trump finally tanks in the polls; surprisingly not. He finished two points up on last week with a brief 50% flirtation before the weekend. Recent polling shows that 49% of voters think it’s unlikely that Congress will find actual evidence of wrongdoing compared with 44% who think it will. The country seems just as divided as Congress.
The fact that Trump is still picking up approval points shows that firstly, talk of impeachment is failing to resonate with the Trump base, and second, that not even those who plan to vote Democrat are convinced of his guilt. The televised testimony this coming week may change all this, but expect Congress to lose a couple of points in the process.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 47% ( + 2%)
- Congress – 22% ( no change)
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 17/10
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 5/1
- Bernie Sanders – 5/1
- Andrew Yang – 11/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 12/1
- Hillary Clinton – 14/1
- Kamala Harris – 25/1
When Michael Bloomberg, former NYC mayor, filed papers for the Alabama primary, the betting odds exploded. Those in the top tier felt a flash of fear, and the outliers began rubbing their hands with glee at a possible VP spot. Leaping in at 11/1 (and later dropping a point), Bloomberg has the potential to take on pretty much all other candidates. Biden and Buttigieg, known as the moderates are the easiest targets to pick off. Biden embroiled in controversy, and Mayor Pete without any big-show experience outside of South Bend, Indiana.
Somewhat more difficult will be those on the extreme left of the party, Warren and Sanders. Bernie managed to climb back two points this week but will it last? HIs bump has more to do with Warren coming under fire for her poorly-presented plans on Medicare-for-all, rather than any growing appeal for the Vermont Socialist. Warren on the other hand, despite being in teh top spot for the Democratic nomination, is falling behind in her odds of winning the White House. It looks like voters just don’t see her as being able to take on President Trump.
The danger for the DNC is not that voters won’t want another wealthy businessman in the top spot, it’s that the already divided party will never coalesce around a late-coming candidate who has struck down their preferred choice.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 6/5
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/2
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 9/1
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 22/1
- Hillary Clinton – 30/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Kamala Harris – 45/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 100/1
Something telling is happening with the political odds this week. Not only has Donald Trump managed to maintain his 6/5 odds of keeping the White House, but he has also lengthened the odds of actually being impeached. With testimony being given daily, media outlets fawning over each piece of leaked information as if it were a timely snapshot of the grassy knoll, the odds should be shortening.
The UK is about to hold a General Election; Prime Minister Boris Johnson is the firm favorite to form the next government, but his odds of leaving office before Trump are far more likely. This could mean one of two things; either the core Trump base are determined to put their money on the line regardless of what the media suggests, or that support for Democratic candidates is far lower than the aforementioned media would have us believe.
When Michael Bloomberg, a two-term Republican and one-term independent can shake up the Democrat primaries in such a violent manner, we have to wonder just how much fidelity the “party faithful” really have.
Donald Trump:
- Impeachment – 1/6
- Resignation – 5/1
- The Queen to ban Trump from the UK – 100/1
- Trump & Putin to take a Vacation together during Donald’s 1st Presidential Term – 25/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
