Political Horse Race: Is Biden Camp Beginning to Worry?

The Candidates’ Market Report

Since Liberty Nation began this column, we have tried to make sense of the polling data and provide a realistic analysis of what the information means in real terms. We have come under criticism for stating openly that poll numbers are inflated in favor of Democrats despite showing clear evidence of Democrat oversampling in almost all major polls. But this week, our facts-only strategy appears to have been proven correct by none other than Joe Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon.

In a memo sent to supporters, Dillon said, “We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race … And every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire.” The message could certainly be seen as nothing more than rallying the base for the last run. However, at an online campaign event, she said:

“[P]lease take [into account] the fact that we are not ahead by double digits … Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”

And this is the reality. As we have detailed in this column exhaustively, Democrats are over-sampled in national polls by up to 9%, and Republicans frequently undersampled. The fact is, this race is about as close as it is possible to be, and anyone who claims otherwise hasn’t analyzed the data.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump – 48% ( no change )
• Congress – 15% ( no change )

Senate Map:

The shape of the 2021 Senate is arguably more important than who wins the presidency in November. Without a Senate majority, the president will be unable to pass major legislation (other than via executive order), which will seriously impact the effectiveness of the administration. This year, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, and as such, the Senate GOP is pushing hard for a solid win.

RealClearPolitics has the likely breakdown as follows:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 47
• Toss-Up: 7

Although there are seven toss-up states, polling indicates that four are likely to go to the GOP, which could signify a tie in the Senate. In this case, the vice president would be the deciding vote on party-line issues.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to presidential power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest.

Florida

• Democrats – 8/13
• Republicans – 6/5

Texas

• Republicans – 3/10
• Democrats – 9/4

Arizona

• Democrats – 4/9
• Republicans – 13/8

Colorado

• Democrats – 1/16
• Republicans – 13/2

Georgia

• Republicans – 4/6
• Democrats – 11/10

Iowa

• Republicans – 4/7
• Democrats – 5/4

Maine

• Democrats – 1/14
• Republicans – 11/2

Michigan

• Democrats – 2/7
• Republicans – 9/4

North Carolina

• Democrats – 4/6
• Republicans – 11/10

Ohio

• Republicans – 4/6
• Democrats – 11/10

Pennsylvania

• Democrats – 2/7
• Republicans – 9/4

Presidential Election:

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

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Read more from Mark Angelides.