The Candidates’ Market Report
Polls are starting to tighten in the presidential election. Whereas in June we were seeing Joe Biden on plus 10%, plus 12%, and even plus 14% in many surveys, in July his lead is averaging around 7% nationally. As riots rage across the country, it seems Trump’s law and order agenda is convincing those who are trying to deal with the devastation.
With Trump rating at 51% approval in the latest polling, it seems his fortunes are on the turnaround. If COVID-19 is dealt with prior to election day and he stays the course on being the only candidate committed to stopping the riots, we can expect this figure to increase.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 51% ( + 1% )
- Congress – 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/33
- Hillary Clinton – 12/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 50/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 66/1
- Kamala Harris – 100/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 100/1
In just two weeks, the Democrats’ national convention takes place, and for good or ill, Biden will be locked in as the candidate. Expected to be a small affair in terms of actual attendees, the online audience will likely be captivated as two important decisions will come to the front.
First, who will be the running mate? The odds point to Kamala Harris on 8/11, closely followed by Susan Rice at 7/2. With Biden’s well-publicized cognitive issues, this could be the most important VP decision ever made.
The other issue that will have viewers glued to the screen is that of the final platform. With Bernie Sanders’ delegates looking to push the party further left, there is likely to be some major horse-trading taking place. It’s a balancing act for Biden: Stick to the center ground and risk losing valuable foot soldiers for his campaign, or lurch leftward and risk alienating the masses of moderate Democrats.
Biden’s Running Mate:
- Kamala Harris – 8/11
- Susan Rice – 7/2
- Tammy Duckworth – 7/1
- Karen Bass – 7/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 16/1
- Val Demings – 20/1
- Michelle Obama – 25/1
- Keisha Lance Bottoms – 66/1
- Stacey Abrams – 100/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years.
The odds of each party winning the following states:
- Florida: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 5/4
- Arizona: Democrats – 8/13; Republicans – 6/5
- Michigan: Democrats – 1/5; Republicans – 11/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 3/10; Republicans – 11/5
- Joe Biden – 1/2
- Donald Trump – 17/10
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Kamala Harris – 100/1
- Mike Pence – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 200/1
- Kanye West – 200/1
- Bernie Sanders – 300/1
- Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson – 500/1
The latest Rasmussen White House Watch polling continues to give the lead to Joe Biden in the presidential race, but there are some factors that need serious consideration. The survey reveals that 31% of black voters are leaning towards President Trump in November, which for any Republican candidate is good news. Could it be that the refusal of blue cities and states to deal with rampaging violence has turned black voters’ heads?
Battleground state polling is a much tighter race than national surveys. While it is to be expected that Biden will poll higher than Trump across the country (as traditionally Democrat states have higher populations), what happens in the swing states will decide the presidency. Polling between the two contenders is divided by roughly 3-4% in these key areas, signifying that for Trump to capture the same amount (or more) Electoral College votes as he did in 2016 will be an uphill struggle.
Unless, of course, the much-ignored “shy Trumper” vote holds as steady as it did four years ago.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:
- 251 – 269 = 12/1
- 270 – 275 = 16/1
- 276 – 280 = 16/1
- 281 – 290 = 14/1
- 291 – 300 = 14/1
- 301 – 315 = 8/1
- 316 – 330 = 7/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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