The Candidates’ Market Report
This has not been a good week for President Trump in terms of his numbers. Not only has he lost 4% in job approval, but he has also slipped a quarter point in the betting odds. The most obvious cause of this recent slump is that House Democrats have spent the week helping witnesses in their impeachment inquiry find any number of ways to implicate the president in wrongdoing. Yet there may be something more at play.
If it were only Trump’s numbers that changed, we could rightly attribute this to the 24-hour news coverage of the impeachment … but it’s not. Another fly in the ointment has caused a hiccup both for the president and for the “former” Democrat frontrunner. Michael Bloomberg is officially in the race; the big question now is whom he will damage most.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 4%)
- Congress – 23% ( + 1%)
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/4
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 7/2
- Bernie Sanders – 11/2
- Michael Bloomberg – 10/1
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Kamala Harris – 50/1
Bloomberg hits 10/1 now that he is officially running, sending poor Andrew Yang back nine whole points in just the first two days. This late entry has not only knocked Hillary Clinton back a couple of points but has also rocked the usually steady odds of Elizabeth Warren. In the race to win the nomination, Warren lost a quarter point – it’s even worse for her in the presidential race.
Joe Biden, despite the near-daily accusations of corruption and political monetization, managed to scrape back a third of a point. Why Bloomberg’s challenge didn’t negatively impact Biden remains to be seen, but it could signify a swing to more moderate positions. Both Biden and Bloomberg are establishment types; they are not going to set the world to burn for ideology. Perhaps voters and money bettors have realized that Bloomberg will reset the balance between far-left and hard left in the modern Democratic Party?
Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders will be wiping sweat from their brows in the knowledge that they have so far remained unscathed by Bloomberg’s presidential run … but it won’t last long. If Warren continues to topple, Sanders won’t be far behind her.
- Donald Trump – 11/8
- Elizabeth Warren – 7/1
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 15/2
- Bernie Sanders – 9/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
- Andrew Yang – 25/1
- Hillary Clinton – 33/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Kamala Harris – 45/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 100/1
Donald Trump lost a sliver of a point this week in his chances to win the presidency. Luckily for him, so did everyone else. Elizabeth Warren, no doubt suffering from the entry of Bloomberg into the race, lost her prime second-place position behind Trump to drop into third behind Joe Biden. Biden himself has not budged even a fraction and is still the second favorite to win on 6/1.
Unlike the race for the primary nomination, the presidential race is not solely based upon who gets the most press coverage. Pete Buttigieg, who neither gained nor lost in the primary race, slips a little in the big show. Andrew Yang and Hillary Clinton also lose out as Bloomberg, almost halving his odds, ends the week on 14/1.
When the polls start coming in on Bloomberg, we can expect him to rise rapidly to the top three or four slots. Who he will push out is the question on everyone’s lips. Will he force a more centrist position? Or will he turn out to be a wrecking-ball that takes out any candidate that even dares to be moderate?
- Impeachment – 1/5
- Resignation – 5/1
- Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term in office – 2/1
- Trump & Putin to take a vacation together during Donald’s 1st Presidential Term – 125/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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