Political Horse Race: Has Bloomberg Toppled Warren?

The Candidates' Market Report

This has not been a good week for President Trump in terms of his numbers. Not only has he lost 4% in job approval, but he has also slipped a quarter point in the betting odds. The most obvious cause of this recent slump is that House Democrats have spent the week helping witnesses in their impeachment inquiry find any number of ways to implicate the president in wrongdoing. Yet there may be something more at play. If it were only Trump's numbers that changed, we could rightly attribute this to the 24-hour news coverage of the impeachment ... but it's not. Another fly in the ointment has caused a hiccup both for the president and for the "former" Democrat frontrunner. Michael Bloomberg is officially in the race; the big question now is whom he will damage most.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 46% ( - 4%)
• Congress - 23% ( + 1%)

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Elizabeth Warren - 11/4
• Joe Biden - 3/1
• Pete Buttigieg - 7/2
• Bernie Sanders - 11/2
• Michael Bloomberg - 10/1
• Hillary Clinton - 16/1
• Andrew Yang - 20/1
• Kamala Harris - 50/1

Bloomberg hits 10/1 now that he is officially running, sending poor Andrew Yang back nine whole points in just the first two days. This late entry has not only knocked Hillary Clinton back a couple of points but has also rocked the usually steady odds of Elizabeth Warren. In the race to win the nomination, Warren lost a quarter point - it's even worse for her in the presidential race. Joe Biden, despite the near-daily accusations of corruption and political monetization, managed to scrape back a third of a point. Why Bloomberg's challenge didn't negatively impact Biden remains to be seen, but it could signify a swing to more moderate positions. Both Biden and Bloomberg are establishment types; they are not going to set the world to burn for ideology. Perhaps voters and money bettors have realized that Bloomberg will reset the balance between far-left and hard left in the modern Democratic Party? Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders will be wiping sweat from their brows in the knowledge that they have so far remained unscathed by Bloomberg's presidential run ... but it won't last long. If Warren continues to topple, Sanders won't be far behind her.

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Impeachment - 1/5
• Resignation - 5/1
• Trump to open Area 51 to the public during his first term in office - 2/1
• Trump & Putin to take a vacation together during Donald's 1st Presidential Term - 125/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.