The Candidates’ Market Report
The numbers are finally starting to firm up now that Bernie Sanders has endorsed Joe Biden. Despite Sanders continuing to collect delegates in the recent primary races, the betting markets have decided to count him out. President Trump is taking blow after blow in this Coronavirus crisis, but his job approval numbers appear to be holding steady for now.
How states react to COVID-19 could be a major determiner come November. Out of the five states hardest hit by the virus, only Michigan was won by Trump in 2016, and that by a knife-edge. There is little chance that the areas suffering most won’t be politicized by both sides, and Democrats tend to win votes in the high-density population locations that are most at risk of infection. Dems will push the idea that damage done during the crisis was a failure of the federal government while Republicans will blame state governance. Who wins this argument could decide the occupant of the White House next year.
Congress receives a major ratings boost this week. Whether it’s due to their performance in agreeing to spending packages or for just staying out of the way is unclear. This could signify a lot of incumbent victories in November.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 44% ( – 4% )
- Congress – 29% ( + 5% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/25
- Hillary Clinton – 16/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 25/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
With Bernie Sanders pulling the plug, the leaderboard has realigned itself. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was previously placed second to win the Democratic Party nomination, has slipped to third behind Hillary Clinton, who remains on 16/1. Cuomo’s slip from 14/1 to 25/1 is likely due to one of two reasons, the first being that he is locked into New York and could not realistically bail out to run for president. The second is that the American public compared his actions in the Empire State to those of President Trump and decided who they would rather have running the country.
Joe Biden is sitting pretty on 1/25 which is about as close as possible to a sure thing as you are likely to find. Barring any shenanigans at the Milwaukee convention, the former VP has the nomination in the bag. From now on, his greatest opponents are President Trump and himself.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 6/4
- Amy Klobuchar – 5/1
- Gretchen Whitmer – 5/1
Primary Races
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 6/5
- Andrew Cuomo – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Hillary Clinton – 50/1
- Nikki Haley – 150/1
- Michelle Obama – 150/1
Trump is on track to win the White House, although betting markets have the Democratic candidate as the favorite to win the popular vote on 4/9. Cuomo drops almost 20 points, suggesting that the earlier excitement around his possible run was built more on division that existed between the Biden and Sanders camps; now that Bernie has officially endorsed Joe Biden, we’ll see all the forces of the Democratic machine coalesce to try and make an unbeatable campaign.
Hillary Clinton’s hopes of a last-minute call up from the benches seem in tatters as she drops to 50/1.
Donald Trump:
- Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the U.N. – 7/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
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