Political Horse Race: Presidential Pendulum Swings From Biden

The Candidates' Market Report

This has been a terrible week for Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden. With all the COVID-19 sound and fury, the Democratic National Convention taking place, and House Democrats determined to make every issue a "Trump issue," Biden should have been riding high ... but that's not what we see in the polls and betting markets. During the convention, which really should have been a crowning achievement as Dems cast aside old grievances to unite behind their chosen warrior, President Trump managed to hit and maintain a 51% approval rating. As one commentator pointed out, approval numbers are supposed to rise during the convention, but not for the opposition candidate. On top of this, polling suggested that the gap between Biden and Trump is closing. The swing state odds are narrowing between the two contenders; added to the almost certain "shy Trump voter" numbers, Joe Biden will have his work cut out to win the Electoral College.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 51% ( + 4% )
• Congress - 19% ( + 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 5/4

Texas

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/6
• Republicans - 11/10

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/8
• Republicans - 9/2

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/9
• Democrats - 13/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 2/5
• Democrats - 7/4

Maine

• Democrats - 1/7
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 1/5
• Republicans - 3/1

North Carolina

• Democrats - 4/5
• Republicans - 10/11

Ohio

• Republicans - 4/6
• Democrats - 11/10

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 3/10
• Republicans - 11/5

Presidential Election:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

• 251 - 269 = 12/1
• 270 - 275 = 16/1
• 276 - 280 = 16/1
• 281 - 290 = 14/1
• 291 - 300 = 14/1
• 301 - 315 = 10/1
• 316 - 330 = 10/1
• 331 - 350 = 12/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.