The Candidates’ Market Report
It took a global pandemic, nationwide riots, and even an impeachment, but Joe Biden has finally drawn even with President Trump in the betting markets for the first time. The odds favor a Biden win – but only narrowly. Despite all the tribulations being faced by the United States, the president’s approval ratings remain steady at 46% while that of Congress has sunk a heady five points. Is this perhaps suggestive of the nation’s mood?
People live in cities and states, and when something is wrong on their doorstep, do they look to the White House or to their local officials, Mayors and Governors? The sudden swing from Biden to Trump may not be a case of support building for the challenger, but rather of an overall malaise indicating general dissatisfaction.
The latest ABC News/WaPo polling gives Biden a ten-point lead in the November election, however, the Economist/YouGov poll gives the likely nominee just a 3% lead. A KUTV poll give s Trump 3% over Biden.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( no change )
- Congress – 19% ( -5% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/12
- Hillary Clinton – 10/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 40/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 50/1
- Kamala Harris – 75/1
Whether it is Joe Biden slowly persuading voters that he is the best option in rebuilding the post-COVID economy, Trump taking a lashing for the riots, or even just the closeness of the Democratic National Convention, Biden has begun rebuilding his prime spot lead. From 1/8 to 1/12 in just a week, it seems that the betting markets are convinced that UNcle Joe will be on the ticket come hell or high water.
This surge could also be due to other factors impacted by gamblers. For example, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has take a betting market-beating over his handling of care home deaths and has dropped from 25/1 to 50/1 putting him well behind Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, and Bernie Sanders.
Today, Tuesday, June 2, sees a number of states go to the polls to cast their primary ballots. Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Washington D.C will be taking part in the primaries, and most of the delegates are expected to break for Biden. However, with Bernie still in play (albeit in a much-diminished capacity), it will be interesting to see how many votes the Vermont socialist can pick up.
Val Demmings is now second favorite to be Biden’s running mate as Amy Klobuchar sinks in the odds.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 11/8
- Val Demings – 5/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 6/1
- Gretchen Whitmer – 9/1
- Michelle Obama – 10/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 12/1
- Stacey Abrams – 14/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
The odds of each party winning the following states:
- Florida: Democrats – 4/6; Republicans – Even
- Arizona: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 11/10
- Michigan: Democrats – 1/3; Republicans – 15/8
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 4/7; Republicans – 11/10
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
- Donald Trump – Even
- Joe Biden – Even
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Bernie Sanders – 66/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 80/1
With both President Trump and Joe Biden on Even money to win the nomination, the race has finally started in earnest. Each poll, each bet will make a difference and will be watched, hawklike, by the respective campaigns. Has the rioting cost Donald Trump another four years in the White House or are there perhaps a couple of things to consider?
The nursing home scandal in New York has toppled any hopes that Andrew Cuomo may have had of being brokered in at the convention. Slipping from 40/1 to 80/1, the support from bettors that the governor may have had will be pushing more folks to bet on Joe Biden. Does this mean that more people are supporting Biden than before or that the interest has shifted from those in the same pool?
Any aspect to consider is that of the 1968 election in which Richard Nixon marched to victory. In the wake of the riots that followed the assassination of Martin Luther King, America chose to vote for the Law and Order candidate. While the present hammering in the polls of Trump may do him short term damage, there is a good chance that voters won’t opt for the guy who’s campaign team has been spending bail money on the very people tearing up the cities.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump
- 251 – 269 = 3/1
- 270 – 275 = 6/1
- 276 – 280 = 7/1
- 281 – 290 = 9/1
- 291 – 300 = 14/1
- 301 – 315 = 14/1
- 316 – 330 = 16/1
- 331 – 350 = 20/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.