Mark is Liberty Nation Editor-in-Chief after previously serving as Managing Editor for four years. Steeped in US Conservative policy and politics, he is the host of our flagship radio show airing across the country on the Radio America Network.
Mark Angelides
Jan 28, 2020
The Candidates' Market Report
Despite a full-blown impeachment trial taking place and dominating the airwaves, President Trump still managed to rake in a 50% job approval rating. Recent polling suggests that American voters are either focused on the trial or they just don't think it will make a difference. This could all change if the Senate votes to have witnesses and new evidence included; a drawn-out process is likely to impact all sides negatively.
Just 27% of likely voters figure the trial will hurt the president's re-election chances, 31% think it will make no difference, and another 31% think it may even help him. Even among Democrat voters, just 40% feel this Senate impeachment trial will harm Trump's 2020 chances.
This Week’s Major Players
ApprovalRatings:
Donald Trump - 50% ( + 2% )
Congress - 22% ( + 5% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
Bernie Sanders - 13/8
Joe Biden - 2/1
Michael Bloomberg - 6/1
Elizabeth Warren - 12/1
Pete Buttigieg - 16/1
Hillary Clinton - 20/1
Andrew Yang - 25/1
Amy Klobuchar - 40/1
Tulsi Gabbard - 100/1
Bernie Sanders (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
Senator Bernie Sanders has finally toppled former Vice President Joe Biden from his usual leading position. Coming in this week at 13/8, the Vermont Independent is now on course to win the primary nomination. But what's behind this latest surge?
Early polling in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire give Bernie the edge, which may be enough to provide him a boost as we approach Super Tuesday. This doesn't mean that Biden should be counted out just yet, but he has his work cut out to not only fend off attacks from his fellow contenders but also to deal with the ill wind blowing his way from the impeachment trial. As the Senate continues to examine actions carried out by President Trump, light is also being cast on the former V.P.'s dealings.
Senator Elizabeth Warren loses five points, slipping into fourth place behind Michael Bloomberg who is hoping to pick up some early state support. Pete Buttigieg continues his slow demise, dropping a huge six points as he struggles on in his campaign. Buttigieg appears to be heading from gaffe to gaffe as he insists there is no place in his party for pro-life Democrats.
Primary Races
Iowa Caucus
Bernie Sanders - 8/11
Joe Biden - 2/1
Pete Buttigieg - 4/1
Elizabeth Warren - 5/1
Nevada Caucus
Bernie Sanders - 8/11
Joe Biden - 6/5
Elizabeth Warren - 10/1
New Hampshire Primary
Bernie Sanders - 8/15
Joe Biden - 5/2
Pete Buttigieg - 7/1
South Carolina Primary
Joe Biden - 1/6
Bernie Sanders - 5/2
Elizabeth Warren - 5/1
PresidentialElection:
Donald Trump - 4/5
Bernie Sanders - 4/1
Joe Biden - 5/1
Michael Bloomberg - 11/1
Elizabeth Warren - 22/1
Pete Buttigieg - 33/1
Andrew Yang - 35/1
Hillary Clinton - 50/1
Amy Klobuchar - 80/1
Mike Pence - 100/1
Nikki Haley - 100/1
Michelle Obama - 125/1
Tulsi Gabbard - 150/1
Mitt Romney - 200/1
In the race for the White House, Bernie has again toppled Joe Biden. Sanders now sits in the number two spot on 4/1 behind President Trump's 4/5. Biden licks his wounds in third place on 5/1. The outsider pack is being led by Michael Bloomberg who despite poor polling and betting odds in the early voting states, seems determined to spend his way into a vice presidency.
Warren, Buttigieg, and Andrew Yang have a long way to go if they want to stay in the race. Each is now in double-digit territory, meaning that bettors have stopped seeing them as worthy of any cash action.
The president seems unassailable for now, but this might change when Democrat primary voters can finally coalesce around a single candidate. If this comes down to the wire and the party is still divided, Dems may be better off pushing their cash into state races rather than trying to secure the presidency with a torn voter base.
Donald Trump:
Senate Convicts - 17/1
Senate Doesn't Convict - 1/80
Complete First Term - 1/7
How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
Zero - 1/9
15 to 19 - 33/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Mark is Liberty Nation Editor-in-Chief after previously serving as Managing Editor for four years. Steeped in US Conservative policy and politics, he is the host of our flagship radio show airing across the country on the Radio America Network.
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